Miami Marlins sign Greg Dobbs
Veteran third baseman Greg Dobbs has signed a two-year minor league contract to stay with the Miami Marlins, and the former Philadelphia Phillies pinch-hitter was worth 0.5 WAR in 439 plate appearances last season after a dismal -0.8 WAR season in 2010- his last year with the Phillies. This is the kind of deal Dobbs should be getting, because he is undoubtedly a replacement-level veteran who is below average in all aspects of the game at this point in his career.
It’s always interesting to look at Bill James’s projections for players leading up to the 2012 season, and James views Greg Dobbs as a -0.1 WAR player next season. A three year Marcel projection system averages out to Dobbs being worth exactly at the replacement level, and it’s hard to disagree with either projection systems. The Marlins are bringing back one of those good ol’- literally- veteran guys who can man the hot corner if Hanley Ramirez decides to get injured again or kick a ball instead of picking it up on defense.
Dobbs disparity between his walks and strikeouts is unsavory to say the least, and he has a career of walk rate of just under 6% to go with a strikeout rate a hair above 18.6%. He is a below-average hitter who should have a wOBA of around .300 in 2012, and his poor defense at third doesn’t exactly help him out either. Dobbs can’t run, and that’s one of the biggest secrets in the MLB. Most people view him as one of the league’s premier base stealing threats; some say that he could easily surpass Jose Reyes‘s stolen base total next season if given the opportunity.
Sarcasm aside, there is very little to like about Dobbs at this point in his career other than the fact that he is a seasoned veteran who has won a World Series ring. His better-than-expected wRC+ of 88 was due to a good amount of luck last season, because the clutch veteran hit a frozen rope a career-high 25.8% of the time last season. That’s not going to continue, and line drive rates fluctuate from season to season; expect lower numbers when his LD% normalizes next season.
This is a guy who hacks at far too many pitches out of the zone and has a poor contact rate overall, so expect another swinging strike percentage of over 9%. Pitchers started to throw more pitches out of the zone against him last season, and it’s hard not to expect more of the same from them next season. Greg Dobbs is a guy who everybody likes, but I wouldn’t expect really anything out of him the next two seasons. Dobbs won’t get many plate appearances in the Majors, so you’ll have to get some minor league seats if you want to watch his career .308 wOBA in action.
Be sure to check out all of Call to the Pen’s transaction breakdowns for the 2011-12 offseason.