Cubs Acquire Rizzo from Padres, Have Long-Term Direction

When Theo Epstein took charge of the Cubs, his plan for the team’s future wasn’t immediately obvious. The team has struggled at the major- and minor-league levels, but they do have the benefit of both some current big-league pieces and a big-market payroll. Facing a choice between a short-term reload and a long-term rebuild, Epstein made the rational decision to blow it up and start from scratch. In reacquiring Anthony Rizzo, that decision was clearly stated and the Cubs’ future now appears much far more transparent.

That the new-look Cubs front office targeted Rizzo as the first piece of their rebuild shouldn’t be much of a surprise. The team gave up hard-throwing relief prospect Andrew Cashner and minor league outfielder Kyung-Min Na in exchange for pitcher Zach Cates and the 22-year-old first baseman. Though Rizzo struggled mightily in his brief cameo at the Major League level last season (.141/.281/242 in 153 PAs), he has the tools to be a building block for a championship team. Nobody knows this better than the Cubs’ baseball operations staff. Rizzo and Epstein go way back, as the first baseman was a Red Sox draft pick in the sixth round back in 2007. Last offseason, Rizzo was a centerpiece in the package that the Padres received for Adrian Gonzalez, meaning the large contingent of ex-Pads execs now populating the Cubs front office are also eminently familiar with Rizzo’s abilities. When the Padres acquired Yonder Alonso from Cincy in the Matt Latos trade, Rizzo’s future was called somewhat into question, as it left the Pads in the enviable position of having two players deserving of the moniker “first baseman of the future,” so despite the prospect’s talent his availability isn’t at all surprising. GM Jed Hoyer, the Padres’ GM at the time of the Gonzalez deal, reacquires his top prospect from his last stop. Meanwhile, something tells me Epstein’s been thinking of a way to get his hands on Rizzo ever since he reluctantly gave him up in the Gonzalez trade. Now that he’s figured it out, Epstein sees Rizzo as a long-term centerpiece who will be a major contributor when the Cubs are ready to contend.

While Rizzo’s MLB debut didn’t go well, there are reasons to believe Epstein’s right to see him as a big piece of the Cubs’ future. The young first baseman has raked at every level of the minors, up to and including Triple-A, where as a 21-year-old he was one of the youngest 3.3% of players. Only the cream of the crop are ready for the level just before the big show at 22, and Rizzo certainly fits the bill. While his defense may leave something to be desired, Rizzo’s value will come from his bat, where he combines plate discipline, power, and pure hitting ability. Rizzo put up a 149 wRC+ in triple-A in 2011, fourth at the level and even more impressive considering that he was going against much more experienced competition.

Building around a first baseman has its drawbacks, but playing the easiest defensive position on the field should help Rizzo stay healthy and keep his bat in the middle of the lineup. It’s tough to stand out offensively as a first baseman, simply because the bar is set so high by the rest of the league’s first basemen. However, if the bat is good enough (and Rizzo’s is), playing first can allow a player to be far more productive by mitigating much of his injury risk. Over the last three years, 11 players have played more than 470 games. Six of those players ply their trade at first base. Epstein and Hoyer are banking on Rizzo’s bat making him a stud, even as a first baseman, and believe that by building around a player at a less challenging position they’ll be able to count on Rizzo’s long-term health.

The Cubs’ plan, quite simply, is this; build for a time when Rizzo can be a key cog in a title-contending lineup. Now that the rebuild is on, expect the Cubs to stockpile long-term talent to complement current “for-the-future” pieces like Rizzo and Starlin Castro. The team’s rebuild will largely follow Rizzo’s path, in that when he’s ready to star, they’ll be ready to contend. That means the timeline looks something like a 5-year plan. For the next couple seasons, the Cubs will be patiently biding their time and developing a minor-league system capable of producing enough talent to fuel sustainable winning. By 2014 or 2015, the team should expect to sniff the playoffs as Rizzo establishes himself at the big-league level. By 2016 or 2017, Rizzo should be fully prepared to take over the team’s offense and hold down the heart of the order, and Epstein will be looking to end his second extended championship drought. The Cubs rebuild will require patience and commitment, which is always what it takes to build a player development machine the right way. Epstein’s not looking to give the team a one-year window where they might have a shot. Just as he did in Boston, he’ll look to build a minor-league system that can continuously produce young, cheap talent that can contribute at the big-league level, especially during their cost-controlled seasons.

The next move will almost certainly be the relocation of Matt Garza. If the aforementioned Latos deal, as well as the trades for Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill, can serve as a guide, controllable arms like Garza are currently fetching their teams huge packages containing several top prospects. If moving Garza can allow Epstein and Hoyer to further repopulate the team’s depleted farm system, it’s going to happen sooner or later, whether they find a deal they like during the offseason or wait for a team to get desperate at the trade deadline next season. When they do, you can be sure they’ll be looking for players on a similar development path to and ready to win alongside Rizzo 4-5 years down the road. Although there’s a lot that can go wrong in half a decade, Cubs fans should be excited to see the team expressing a coherent direction and building towards a point in the future where they can see themselves as legitimate competitors.

Be sure to check out all of Call to the Pen’s transaction breakdowns for the 2011-12 offseason. You can follow Call to the Pen on Twitter at @FSCalltothePen or like us here on Facebook. For more Cubs news, head over to Cubbies Crib.