MLB Free Agents: Why Hasn’t Anyone Signed Roy Oswalt Yet?
The Red Sox are thought to be making a hard run at Roy Oswalt now. They traded Marco Scutaro in an apparent attempt to open up salary room (a laughable topic coming from one of the two largest payroll teams in baseball). Even with the added interest from the Red Sox, the fact is Roy Oswalt has been on the market much longer than he deserves to be.
His asking price has come down dramatically and he is willing to sign for a one-year deal. The minute that news broke, some team should have picked him up. I have no doubts that Oswalt has had offers, but he’s looking to be on a competing ball club. So why hasn’t one signed him yet? The fear of injury is a decent fear, but even with an Oswalt that performs at 75% of his peak, he’s worth the risk.
Oswalt is just 34 years old. He’s pitched in 11 seasons and has a few more good years left in him. His best season came in 2005 based on number of starts and ERA. During that season, Oswalt started 35 games and posted a tiny 2.98 ERA. He struck out 185 batters and walked just 48. Oswalt finished the season 4th in Cy Young voting, 23rd in MVP voting, and as an All-Star.
Let’s start with those numbers and work from there. We’ll consider Oswalt’s potential assuming different levels of effectiveness based on his injury track record and age. What would it look like if Oswalt performed at 85% of his 2005 figures? 75%? 65%? We’ll factor in innings pitched, walks, strikeouts, earned runs, and hits to get to our calculations. You may notice wins conspicuously missing from our calculations. Wins are based as much or more so on the offense, so it is unfair to lump those in to these calculations.
85%:
IP – 205
BB: 57
K: 157
ER: 93
H: 286
The above numbers would give Oswalt the following stat line: 4.08 ERA, 1.673 WHIP, 157 K, and 57 BB. The ERA is concerning, but considering he has never posted an ERA over 4.0, the estimation is probably very high.
75%:
IP – 181
BB – 64
K – 138
ER – 105
H – 324
Aside from innings pitched and strikeouts, these numbers get even less likely. The problem with calculating performance this way is that the numbers are factored from the totals on the original number of innings pitched. For example, Oswalt gave up 243 hits in 241.2 innings pitched. Calculating the number of innings pitched based on a percentage of Oswalt’s old self is easy, but calculating hits is difficult. We’re basing the calculation on the original total of 243, but logic says in less inning pitched Oswalt would give up less hits. We could use hits per nine as a measure, but this is a simple calculation, so let’s focus on this for now.
Would a team want Oswalt for 181 innings pitched and 138 strikeouts? I’m sure many would.
65%:
IP – 157
BB – 74
K – 120
ER – 122
H – 373
If Oswalt is only 65% of his peak self, he probably wouldn’t be pitching in the league anymore. However, we’ll look at the numbers. 157 innings pitched is not great for a starter. If he were to start 30 games and amount that total, it would mean Oswalt was going just more than 5 innings per start. His strikeout total in the limited number of innings pitched is still something most teams would certainly take.
The point of this analysis is not to project Oswalt’s actual performance, it’s simply to ask why no team has signed him yet. Bill James predicts 171 innings pitched, 43 walks, 133 strikeouts, 66 earned runs, and 165 hits. He’s projected to have a 3.47 ERA. These numbers seem much more realistic than the above calculations, but if a team is truly concerned with his health, the incredibly conservative numbers I have come up with still paint a picture of a pitcher who can contribute.
Oswalt’s asking price is under $9 million and he’s willing to take a one-year deal. I would be surprised if the Red Sox don’t land him, but I’m already surprised that he’s still available.