Prince Fielder and the Process of Elimination

Now that Ryan Madson’s signed with the Reds, Prince Fielder is by far the biggest remaining name on the free agent market. Fielder’s market has fluctuated wildly since the beginning of the offseason, pushed forward by Scott Boras’ aggressive representation and the lack of legitimate possible landing spots for Fielder. Boras and Fielder will have trouble matching Albert Pujols’ $240M guarantee, but some team will eventually pay him big money. To shed some light on who that might be, let’s walk through who it won’t.

Don’t have the money (Eliminated: 13):

We’ll start off with the teams who won’t be getting Fielder because they quite simply don’t have the payroll space. For some, like the usual suspects in Tampa and Oakland, pinching pennies is a way of life and big-name free agents like Fielder are never a luxury they can afford. Others, like the Giants and Cardinals, have expensive arbitration classes and pre-existing payroll commitments, while still others are stuck between a rock and a hard place in simultaneously trying to compete on the field and weather ownership issues (Dodgers, Mets).

Teams eliminated: Rays, Indians, A’s, Mets, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies, Brewers, Cards, Pirates, Astros, Giants, Dodgers

Already have a 1B (Eliminated: 10):

These teams have established first basemen, making Fielder an inefficient use of resources. Some, like the Yankees and Red Sox, already have a first baseman signed to a large contract, while others, such as the Royals and Braves, have committed to a promising first baseman they see holding down the position for some time into the future. Though Fielder might fit the Marlins’ spending spree strategy this offseason, they appear likely to stick with young stud Gaby Sanchez. The Twins are locked in with Justin Morneau and must hope the New Westminster, British Columbia product can turn his career around after dealing with concussion and other injury issues for the majority of the last two seasons.

Teams eliminated: Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Royals, Angels, Phillies, Reds, Marlins, Braves, Twins

Not at the right point on the Win Curve (Eliminated: 2):

The two Chicago teams simply aren’t at a point where it’s logical to make a run at Fielder. As I discussed in my Anthony Rizzo post, the Theo Epstein era in Chicago will begin with a fairly extensive rebuild, so signing Fielder would run counter to that strategy, and Fielder won’t want to play for a loser as the farm system is gradually replenished. The White Sox have been in flux all offseason, seemingly unsure whether to make a run or try and restock a minor league system widely considered the worst in baseball. After last year’s disaster of a campaign, adding another big contract would seem to be out of the question, but Kenny Williams is an unpredictable guy.

Teams Eliminated: Cubs, White Sox

Maybe (5)?

We’re left with five teams. I’ll run through them, in order of probability, with the caveat that I don’t know anything other than what’s been put into the media by the teams or Boras, who might very well be leaking information to shift the market to their benefit.

Mariners: I see Seattle as a pretty unlikely destination. Points for the Mariners include their deep-pocketed Japanese ownership group and GM Jack Zduriencik’s Fielder connection (Zduriencik took Fielder in the first round of the 2002 draft as the Brewers’ Director of Scouting). However, this team is still a few years away from contending, and they’ve already got Justin Smoak to play first base. The Mariners will give Jesus Montero every chance to prove he has what it takes defensively to stay behind the plate, but I still find it highly unlikely that he’ll be an everyday catcher. Montero will probably be bumped to DH duties, meaning three 1B/DH candidates for two spots with Fielder in the fold. While it’s an intriguing idea, this one doesn’t pass the sniff test.

Blue Jays: It’s no secret that, if the Jays step up and become competitive with the big boys in the AL East, their value to owners Rogers Communications would skyrocket with increased viewership around Canada. Through some extremely shrewd dealings in his 2+ years as GM, Alex Anthopolous has the team positioned to contend in the near future, but a large part of that strategy has involved avoiding everything but the bargain bin on the free agent market entirely. As has been discussed extensively elsewhere, Darren Oliver’s $4.5M deal is the biggest free agent pact inked by the Jays during Anthopolous’ tenure. Considering he’d probably have to dole out something like 50x that to have a shot at Fielder, I’m skeptical of the Jays getting involved, but if the ownership group is looking to make a splash I’m sure Anthopolous wouldn’t mind a shiny new “PF Flyer.”

Orioles: Another team whose pursuit of Fielder will hinge largely on their ownership group is the Orioles. The Orioles’ failure to develop what once looked like a surplus of exciting young arms (Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Hobgood) has left them in a position where it’s hard to see them competing anytime soon, so signing Fielder probably isn’t a prudent baseball decision. However, if owner Peter Angelos believes Fielder is the attraction the team needs to turn around sagging attendance numbers and send Orioles fans flocking to Camden Yards, there’s a chance he’d make Fielder a big-time offer.

Rangers: The Rangers might be the destination that makes the most sense from a baseball operations standpoint, as they’ve lost in the World Series for the last two years and could stand to upgrade from solid but unspectacular first baseman Mitch Moreland. Fielder could be just the addition the team needs to put them over the top, but the team’s already in unprecedented territory in regards to payroll and adding Fielder would likely mean another $20M/year or more. The team spent just over $100M in 2002 and 2003, peaking in 2002 at $105M. After 2003, payroll was nearly halved to just over $55M, and didn’t break $70M until last offseason’s spending spree brought them back up to $92M. After signing Yu Darvish, the team sits at $92,625,000 with expensive arbitration cases for Mike Napoli, Nelson Cruz, and Elvis Andrus still on the docket. By the time it’s all said and done, payroll after those cases will be between $115M (if they lose every case) and $109M (if they win every one), meaning that even if each arbitration board decides on the team’s lower salary offer the Rangers will have their largest payroll in franchise history next year. With that in mind, it’s tough to imagine them adding $20M in the form of Fielder. Flags fly forever, though, and if they believe Fielder is what they need to get over the hump and win a championship that might be worth going well over budget.

Nationals: The Nationals have been Fielder’s rumored destination for some time (along with the Rangers), and while the team’s front office has shrugged off the rumors, they persist because Washington simply makes the most sense. The Nationals are gearing up to compete during Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper’s periods of team control, and adding a piece like Fielder who they can expect to anchor the lineup for the next 5-7 years makes a ton of sense in that context. The team’s also looking at a huge revenue influx from a new TV deal. To persuade Orioles owner Peter Angelos to drop his firm opposition to the location of a team in Washington, MLB struck a deal that basically gave Angelos full control over both team’s agreements with MASN sports network for the first five years the team was in Washington. Now that that five years is up, the Nationals will get the opportunity to renegotiate that contract, which could mean huge money especially if there’s widespread viewing interest. Nothing creates fan interest like big-name free agent signings, so Fielder in the nation’s capital makes sense from that perspective. Plus, the team has young talent all around the diamond, the result of both a fairly productive farm system and some aggressive free agent signings under GM Mike Rizzo, and currently has Adam LaRoche penciled in at first base. No offense to LaRoche, who’s a fine ballplayer, but he’s not the kind of guy who should keep a team with the need and the means from making an impact signing like Fielder. With owner Randy Lerner committed to bringing respectable baseball to Washington for the first time in recent memory, my best guess at this point is that Fielder ends up a National.

There are some flaws in the arguments for many of Fielder’s suitors, but at this point the Rangers and Nationals are by far his most likely landing spots. Little by little, Fielder’s potential destinations have been pared away for one reason or another, but one thing’s for certain; the Boras client will get paid big money, as much for his ability to put butts in the seats as for the potent bat he’ll add to the core of whatever lineup he eventually joins. With Spring Training a month away, the clock is ticking, so I expect a resolution in the near future.

For CttP’s analysis of all this offseason’s transactions, click here. Be sure to check back once Fielder signs for our take on his deal.