Cleveland Indians sign Casey Kotchman

Their lineup has even more left-handers after this signing, but the Cleveland Indians have helped out their offense and filled a void at first base by signing Casey Kotchman to a one-year deal worth $3 million. That being said, Kotchman may be an upgrade, but he is about a 1 WAR player who isn’t nearly starting quality. Let’s face it, the .335 BABIP last season was all luck, and that’s what built his 2.8 WAR season. The Indians are better than where they were, but it becomes time to assess whether or not Kotchman is worth the small price of $3 million.

Given that he is a top defensive first baseman and a well below-average base-runners, we can project Casey Kotchman as a 1.2 WAR player in 2012 using RotoChamp (1.4 WAR), Baseball Info Solutions (1 WAR), fan projections (1.2 WAR), and a simple Marcel (1.1 WAR).

The more important aspect of Kotchman’s game to analyze is the cause of his BABIP in 2011. It is far too superficial to glance at a BABIP over .310 and call it unlucky without evidence to back it up. Kotchman’s career average on balls in play is .280, and it was a bounce-back from a .229 mark the previous year in Seattle. Kotchman hit a little more liners than usual and traded a few percentage points worth of fly balls for grounders, but that doesn’t have a nominal effect on one’s BABIP. He nearly doubled his amount of infield-hits, but that also falls under the “luck” category, much like a slightly increased LD%.

His minor renaissance at the dish last season has been linked to an eye procedure he underwent, but a close look at the plate discipline statistics quickly dispels this notion. Kotchman is still chasing pitches at the same rate, but he is actually swinging at less pitches in the zone and is receiving less pitches in the zone. Kotchman’s contact rate in 2011 was in-line with his career average of 88%, and the same can be said about his 4.9 SwStr%.

The bottom line is that Casey Kotchman has not changed as a hitter, and his .335 BABIP was completely due to luck; it’s the bitter truth. He didn’t change his approach at the plate, and he was as lucky as it gets last season.

Casey Kotchman will help this team with his defense, and he is currently favored over former teammate and recently acquired first baseman Russ Canzler, as well as previous incumbent Matt LaPorta. The first base job is far from set, but Kotchman is the early favorite.

$3 million is worth about 0.6 WAR on the open market, which means that the Indians paid about 60% of Kotchman’s total value to the team. It isn’t a great move, simply because Kotchman is a below-average player. However, this is the type of low budge contract a player like Kotchman deserves, and it was a decent move for the Indians. He can help this team out with 400 PAs this season, and you never know if the whole eye surgery really did have a profound impact on his offense. I doubt that, but Kotchman is still a 1 WAR player on a 0.6 WAR contract. These are the small tweaks and victories that help teams out down the road.

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