Do a Player’s Historical Playoff Performances Matter?

Nick Swisher is not seeking to force the Yankees’ hand this season. He is not going to push for a multi-year contract during the season. Instead, Swisher will test the free agent market after the 2012 season. He may very well return to the Yankees, but he will be a nice target on market next offseason. The one knock on him has been his performance in the postseason. Call it clutch performance, call it stepping up, or call it an anomoly. Swisher simply has not performed well in the postseason. For his career, Swisher has a .169/.295/.323 line. But does that matter in terms of estimating future contributions and the player’s overall worth? Should teams even consider a player’s postseason performances of the past?

Barry Bonds was a historically bad postseason player. At least when compared to his regular season numbers. For his regular season career, Barry Bonds hit .298/.444/.607. In the postseason, his triple-slash was .245/.430/.503. Those postseason numbers are still impressive, but there’s a large gap between those and the regular season numbers. Alex Rodriguez is another playoff flop. Vladimir Guerrero, Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, Reggie Sanders, and Mark Teixeira are all additional examples of exceptional regular season players who falter in the playoffs. Of course, “faltering” is relative to the player’s regular season performance as evidenced by Barry Bonds’ decreased numbers.

Back to Swisher. When talking about his future, one of the first things discussed is Swisher’s postseason performance. As if his lack of success in the postseason will hinder any future team he plays for, the topic of conversation usually hits on Swisher’s ability to come through in the playoffs. It may not be the most important subject or the most talked about subject, but almost invariably, it comes up. However, postseason performances carry very little weight in the overall value of  a player looking for a new contract.

The postseason includes such a small sample size, the numbers will almost always skew one direction or the other. For the lucky few to have been the the postseason many times, the numbers will balance out for the most part. However, the regular season offers a much clearer, much better glimpse into the contributions a player will make to their new team (or their current team going forward with a new contract).

Swisher has played in 1,061 games in the regular season. In the postseason, he has played in 38 games. The play-off games account for just 3.5% of the major league games Swisher has played in his career. When discussing his new contract, any emphasis placed on his postseason numbers should not top 3.5% (if points of discussion had specific weights that is) For example, age should carry a certain weight when discussing a new contract. So should player cost, defensive value (regular season), offensive value (regular season), and finally postseason performance.

In the case of testing the free agent market, Swisher’s age will carry the most weight, but his playoff performances of years past will surely carry a much higher weight than they should. Of course, his regular season performance will be looked at in more depth, but there is little doubt the lack of postseason numbers will enter the equation with much more consideration than should ever be the case. Swisher’s regular season performance should carry the most consideration, followed by his age, his defensive abilities, his intangibles, a whole lot of other things, and finally his postseason performances. Yet because we place so much emphasis on winning championships (and rightly so), teams and fans try to estimate any new player’s ability to help their team in the postseason.

The problem with doing so is two-fold.  One, the idea that a player’s past playoff performances should be of any weight indicates an assumption that the team said player is going to will make the playoffs.  There are no guarantees this player will even help the team to the postseason.  If Swisher were to sign with the Royals, for example, it’s not likely that his addition means a playoff berth.  Yet, there should be little doubt the Royals and the Royals fans will consider Swisher’s postseason struggles.  Two, just because a player struggles in the postseason doesn’t mean he can’t be the reason the team is even there in the first place.  Last season, and both of their other playoff berths, the Rays rode Evan Longoria‘s skills to the postseason.  Of course, the entire team performed well, but if not for Longoria’s extra-inning blast last season, the Rays may not have even made the postseason.  If not for Longoria’s season-long contributions, the Rays may not have been in a position to close the gap on the Red Sox.  No matter what amount of struggles a player has in the postseason, the fact that that player was able to help get the team into the playoffs is all that matters.

Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York had this to say when discussing Swisher’s contract negotiations (or lack thereof) with the Yankees:

"But Swisher struggled in the postseason, as he has throughout his career, batting .211 in the ALDS against the Detroit Tigers. In nine postseason series, Swisher’s batting average is .169 and his OBP .295."

While Swisher has been the general focus of this piece, the fact is, postseason numbers should have very little baring on any player’s contract negotiations or free agent stock.  With minimal sample sizes, the completely uncertain nature of each prospective team’s playoff odds, and the fact that these players are often the reason teams make the postseason in the first place are proof that the regular season is truly all that matters in player evaluation.  Once the postseason starts, it’s a whole new ball game.  The focus quickly shifts from what a player did during the season to what the player has done in past postseasons.  That may be fair considering the arena, but even then the stats don’t matter much.

Whether it be Swisher’s next contract, or any player being evaluated by a major league club, postseason numbers will surely come into play.  Smart teams, though, will limit their analysis of these numbers and focus instead on what that player has done in the regular season, and what that player can do to get them to the playoffs.

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