Ryan Zimmerman Extension Brings Stability, Value to Nationals

Ryan Zimmerman set a 10 AM Saturday deadline for extension talks with the Nationals, but discussions over the extent of his no-trade protection kept negotiations going until Sunday morning. When the dust finally cleared, Zimmerman inked a 6-year, $100M extension, which will be tacked on to the end of the 5-year contract he signed in 2009, which pays him $12M this season and $14M in 2013.

The new deal, which insures Zimmerman will remain in the nation’s capital until 2019, includes a $24M mutual option for 2020. This contract’s average annual value for the six guaranteed years is $16.7M, and it’ll make Zimmerman a National until he’s at least 34. To evaluate what to expect over the length of the contract, I’m going to model Zimmerman’s aging curve by averaging the WAR production of his top 10 similar batters through age 26 according to Baseball Reference for their age 24, 25, and 26 seasons to get a baseline for their production, and each of their subsequent 9 seasons, the total length of Zimmerman’s commitment. Then I’ll look at Zimmerman’s recent production, again by WAR, to establish a baseline for his level of production and extrapolate that out to give some idea as to what Zimmerman’s production will be during his contract if he ages similarly to his closest comparables.

The Zimmerman comparable list passes the smell test, as it’s populated with players who provide value on both sides of the ball and in many cases have dealt with the injury issues that have plagued Zimmerman since 2008. Over the last 4 seasons, he’s made only 506 appearances, roughly three-quarters of his team’s games. The full list of comparable players includes Harlond Clift, Scott Rolen, Eric Chavez, Gus Bell, David Wright, Gary Sheffield, Ken Keltner, Del Ennis, Aramis Ramirez, and Jack Clark. I’ve decided to remove all pre-Expansion Era players, keeping only players for whom this period of their career was before 1961, as medical and training advances are allowing players to play longer careers and remain productive for far longer. This leaves out Clift, Bell, Keltner, and Ennis, and leaves us with what should be a solid set of comparable players for the balance of Zimmerman’s career. The players’ age 24-26 seasons are combined using a standard 5/4/3 weighted average, which uses an expanded three-year sample but also recognizes that more recent data should be considered to have higher predictive value. Zimmerman’s comparables put up a weighted average of 3.8 WAR in their prior 3 years, which compares fairly closely to Zimmerman’s 4.0, another good indicator that this data set may have predictive value. The players’ average production jumped up to 4.2 in their age 27 seasons. The players then averaged between 2 and 4 WAR until their age 33 seasons, with an expected overall gradual decline apparent. The group jumps back up to 5 WAR at age 34, but this is largely because we reach the present for Wright, Chavez, and Ramirez, allowing Gary Sheffield’s resurgent 7.6 WAR season as a 34 year old in 2003 with the Braves to have undue influence over the model.

Click here to see data from Zimmerman’s comparables

Using Zimmerman’s last 3 seasons (again with 5/4/3 weighting) as a baseline, we then can depreciate his production using the aging curve established by his comparables. This allows us to calculate Zimmerman’s expected WAR production for each year of the contract. Wins on the free agent market are currently valued at a generally agreed-upon $5M/WAR, and the overall consensus seems to be that this number is expected to increase at roughly 5% per year. Plugging in the yearly contract values by the expected rate of $/WAR, we can determine how much WAR production Zimmerman’s expected to need in order to produce at the value of the contract, then compare that number to his expected production based on the aging curve and see whether the model suggest he’ll be worth the money. Since Zimmerman’s baseline is just above the overall model baseline, he’s expected to produce a little more than the average player in the data set, but still follows the general pattern of 4 projected WAR next year followed by an extended stretch of productive 2-3 WAR seasons. Overall, the model pegs Zimmerman’s value at just under $200M through the life of the contract. $37M of this value is projected to come in 2019, a result of Sheffield’s breakthrough year, but given that Sheffield, Rolen, and Clark each put up 3.5+ WAR at 34, and Ramirez has a shot if he can match his production from 2011 this season, it’s not a stretch to suggest Zimmerman could reasonably be a 3-4 WAR player even late in his career. Even without that anomaly, however, Zimmerman is expected to produce enough to justify the contract.

Click here to see the model’s projections for Zimmerman’s production

Zimmerman’s talents aren’t fully explained by his Baseball Reference stat sheet. As the longest-tenured National, he provides a strong clubhouse presence and veteran leadership and stability that are important with a young club like Washington. Zimmerman will be expected to tutor future stars like Bryce Harper and 2011 draftee Anthony Rendon, a third baseman taken sixth overall out of Rice who could take over duties at the hot corner before the end of Zimmerman’s contract and push Zimmerman across the diamond to first. Zimmerman’s a solid defender, and his value on both sides of the ball has made him the second most valuable third baseman in baseball to only Evan Longoria over the past three seasons despite his injury issues. While any long-term contract does present risk, Zimmerman’s a franchise cornerstone who’s worth taking a risk on because he’s one of the best third basemen in baseball if he can stay on the field. Washington’s young clubhouse needs a vocal and respected leader. While that job may have been Zimmerman’s before the extension, he’s removed the uncertainty of being just two seasons from free agency and signed on for the majority of the rest of his promising career.

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