Cameron Maybin Extension Analysis
The San Diego Padres have given center fielder Cameron Maybin a five-year, $25 million contract extension, and the former Florida Marlins player will turn 25 on Opening Day. Both sides were discussing a contract extension for some time, but they finally came to an agreement on one yesterday. Cameron Maybin will make just $500K next season, and the contract will escalate each season from $3 million in 2013 to $5 million, $7 million, $8 million, and $9 million. There is an option for a sixth year that is worth between $7 million and $8 million and comes with a $1 million buyout.
At the price of $5 million per year, the Padres believe that Cameron Maybin will average out to about 1.1 WAR in value per season. While Maybin was worth just 0.7 WAR in 2010, he broke out in a big way last season with a 4.7 WAR. He played incredible defense, was of huge value on the bases (4o steals), and he had a career high 112 wRC+. Once regarded as a top prospect, Maybin fell out of favor in the baseball world and was projected in a poor light. He flourished last season in his first year in San Diego, and there is no doubt that Cameron Maybin is no longer a bust.
Projection Systems for Cameron Maybin using Simple WAR Calculator
Fans: 3.9 WAR, 105 wRC+
Simple Marcel: 2.8 WAR, 97 wRC+
ZiPS: 3 WAR, 97 wRC+
Steamer: 3.6 WAR, 104 wRC+
Bill James: 3.7 WAR, 113 wRC+
RotoChamp: 3.3 WAR, 102 wRC+
If all six projection systems are averaged out, then the projected WAR and wRC+ totals for Cameron Maybin in 2012 are 3.4 WAR and 103 wRC+. Maybin is projected to be great in the field and on the bases but only slightly above average with the stick. The projection systems are actually quite spread apart, but the general consensus is that he is worth around that much.
The problem is that Maybin is getting paid on one huge year, but he has never been worth over 1 WAR in any other season in his career. It is time to see whether or not Maybin’s improvement is a fluke, because the amount of money per year given to Maybin is meager in the beginning. Most center fielders peak around the age of 27 or 28, so the Padres are getting him locked up during the best years of his career.
Maybin’s power and BABIP totals were around the same as his career values, but he cut down on his strikeouts to the point where they didn’t handicap him as much. This led to a slight increase in OBP and overall numbers, but most of his value was from positional adjustment, park adjustment, and defense/baserunning. Unfortunately, the Simple WAR Calculator does not adjust for park, so Cameron Maybin is worth closer to 4 WAR than 3 WAR (perhaps 3.7 WAR).
Contractual Value for Cameron Maybin
2012, age 25: $500,000 0.1 WAR
2013, 26: $3 million 0.7 WAR
2014, 27: $5 million 1.1 WAR
2015, 28: $7 million 1.6 WAR
2016, 29: $8 million 1.8 WAR
2017, 30: $9 million 2 WAR
Before looking at the predicted WAR output for Cameron Maybin over the course of the extension, it is important to take a look at the plate discipline stats and the batted ball stats. As expected, Maybin’s batted ball statistics did not change, save for a few more grounders. He didn’t even change his approach at the plate, which leads me to believe that the projections are off and Maybin isn’t as good of a hitter as 2011 made him out to be.
The projection provided by ZiPS is the most accurate, because it rates him as a slightly below-average hitter and a 3 WAR player overall. This is Maybin’s true value, because his resurgence last season wasn’t a total fluke. However, he didn’t legitimately improve dramatically from 2010 to 2011, which leads me to believe that he Padres feel the same way. They gave him five years, because Maybin is young and has upside at center. What if he truly is a 3.5-4 WAR player like the fans on FanGraphs say he is? This is a a good risk taken by the Padres when making this lengthy contract, due to Maybin’s youth and ability. $5 million per year isn’t much for a good center fielder, and it is worth only a little more than one win per season. I am inclined to believe that Maybin is worth 2-3 WAR and isn’t as good as his 2011 season projection.
Cameron Maybin Projected Value
2012: 2.5 WAR, $11.2 million ($11.2)
2013: 2.5 WAR, $11.2 million ($22.4)
2014: 3 WAR, $13.5 million ($35.9)
2015: 2.5 WAR, $11.3 million ($47.2)
2016: 2 WAR, $9 million ($56.2)
2017: 1.5 WAR, $6.8 million ($63)
As you can see, the San Diego Padres are getting the best seasons out of Cameron Maybin, and the five-year contract stops just before Maybin’s decline. This was a savvy move by the Padres, since Maybin should be getting $63 million over five years ($12.6 million). The Padres have saved $38 million by making this deal, and they have a solid center fielder who will help them out over the next handful of seasons. Cameron Maybin wanted a no-trade clause, but he will be underpaid over the prime years of his career instead. Either that, or he traded money for job security and is worried that he is truly a 1 WAR player himself. This is an extremely difficult deal to project, but it looks like the Padres won this one.
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