Roy Oswalt worth the price
Starting pitcher Roy Oswalt has been a free agent for quite some time now, and the rumors just keep on swirling regarding his future. Apparently, Oswalt is now more into money than playing for a team close to his Mississippi home, and he may no longer be looking to join a big contender. Hey, Baltimore Orioles. You might want to try your luck.
Ken Rosenthal wrote in this piece:
"The Dodgers checked in and considered the price “excessive.” One source said Oswalt wants a pro-rated $7.5 million in base salary. Another said that Oswalt’s desired salary is a moving target, “but always high.”"
$7.5 million seems high when looking at what other veterans make when they get a pro-rated salary, but Roy Oswalt isn’t just any other veteran pitcher. He may be 34, but he was worth 2.5 WAR last season in 139 innings.
Oswalt finished with a 3.44 FIP and a 3.95 xFIP, but the xFIP is a little bit misleading here. He gave up weaker contact than usual (less homers), because he was able to induce weak contact by getting hitters to chase and make contact on pitches outside of the zone. The 3.44 FIP is the best indicator of his performance last season.
Being worth 2.5 WAR is pretty good for most pitchers, but it’s the worst total of Oswalt’s 11-year career. His strikeout rate was just 6.0 K/9 and fell about 1.4 points from his career average last year. He had a .316 BABIP against him which was undoubtedly do to some bad luck, unlike the 6.3 HR/FB% which was due to “skill” (more like approach towards hitters, because the chase-and-contact hurt his K/9).
Even if Oswalt isn’t due for a little bit of good regression, a 2.5 WAR season is worth more than $7.5 million. In fact, $7.5 million equates to about 1.7 WAR on the open market.
Which means, Oswalt would either have to substantially decline from a down year to an even worse year in order to be worth 1.6 WAR and make a team “lose” the deal. That isn’t inconceivable given his age, but a drop in almost a full win is pretty drastic, and Oswalt is actually projected by most people to be worth 3 WAR.
Given that information, we’re looking at a supposed 50% cut in value, which isn’t likely. It’s possible, but Roy Oswalt is still one of the better pitchers in baseball and displays great control with a solid GB%, can limit big hits against him, and has the ability to get an average amount of punch-outs.
Since Oswalt isn’t going to drop-off from being an average No. 2 or great No. 3 starter to being a No. 4 or 5 starter, he is worth the $7.5 million that he wants. A team like the Texas Rangers or Philadelphia Phillies that already has pitching depth can afford to stay put, but a team like the O’s should take initiative.
Look, Baltimore needs to add another pitcher they have want to have a legitimate shot. They owe it to the fan base to try and go after a $7.5 million vet for one year to help boost their rotation. The worst thing that happens is they miss the playoffs but end up being a few wins better because they added a quality starting pitcher worth around three wins.
Signing Oswalt is actually a low-risk deal, because he is honestly affordable and will only be on the team for a year. If he disappoints, oh well, you won’t get burned. The Boston Red Sox should also be taking a hard look at him, and the Phillies should also look into bringing him back if an injury happens or if they want to deal Joe Blanton.
The Los Angeles Dodgers think that he’s too expensive, but they could also use a guy like Oswalt to bolster their team. The NL West would be wide open, and the Dodgers would have a a great trio in the rotation with Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Oswalt in the fold.
The only team that shouldn’t look into him at all is the Texas Rangers, because they might have too much depth in the rotation. So much so that some legitimate starters are currently pitching out of the bullpen. Signing Oswalt would be excess spending, but those other teams above should be at least somewhat interested.
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