The Philadelphia Phillies: Buyers or Sellers?

The Phillies were bad for a long time.  From 1994-2006, they failed to make the post season.  From 1984-2006, the made the postseason once.  However, things turned around starting in 2007.  From 2007-2011, the Phillies have made the postseason five consecutive seasons, and they won the World Series in 2008.  In 2012, the team is in danger of having that streak of success snapped.

Philadelphia is 33-38, and they are 8.5 games back of the surprising Washington Nationals in the National League East.  They ranks near the middle of the pack in both offensive categories and defensive categories.  In years past, they’ve been able to rely on their dominant pitching and let their offense score just enough runs.  Now, they are battling injuries on both sides.

Roy Halladay, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Cliff Lee are just a few of the names to have hit the disabled list at some point this year.  Three of those names are still currently on the DL.  Age has played a role in the team’s overall decline, but have they reached a point in which they should sell at the trade deadline, or do they have enough in them to make one more run?

Let’s explore the division first.  The Nationals are a young, exciting team.  They have good pitching, decent offense, and they have players who will be around for years to come.  They are only going to get better.  The Braves have many of the same traits as the Nationals but with a better farm system and, arguably ,better scouts.  They just missed out on the postseason last year after a historic collapse, but they’ve been in the play-offs 15 times in the last 21 years.  They’re pretty consistent.  The Marlins just found some money stuffed in their mattress, or at least it seems that way.  They have a new ballpark, and they have suddenly infused themselves with top-level talent.  The sustainability of their team lies in their success, so they are almost mandated to compete.  And finally the Mets are emerging from their financial crisis with a better team than even they could have hoped for.  They may not be true contenders this year, but they are improving and will provide solid competition for all the teams in the NL East.

With all the above in mind, I’ll ask the question again.  Should the Phillies be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?  It seems the answer is clear.  They are not in a position to compete with four other good teams in the same division.  They need to rebuild their team from the bottom up.  Their pitching core could be gone by the end of the this season and decimated by the end of next season should they not re-sign Cole Hammels and extend Roy Halladay.  Halladay is a free agent in 2014.  Cliff Lee can’t be the only one anchoring this team.

The Phillies need to strike while the iron is hot, but it will take a commitment to rebuilding.  There is no law that says rebuilding must take years and years.  In fact, the Phillies could be sellers this year and compete for a play-off berth next year.  It’s happened before and it can happen again.  But the fact is, this team is not going to make a run at the National League East this year.  They probably won’t even make a run at the Wild Card.  They have talent that could bring in prospects and younger players at the deadline.  It’s time to make some trades.

For more on the Phillies, be sure to check out That Ball’s Outta Here.