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Is the Yoenis Cespedes effect real?

By Steve Engbloom

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There they were. The Oakland Athletics were playing some good baseball. Up until July 30th, that is. That was the last time, Yoenis Cespedes donned an A’s uniform. Since then, the A’s have fallen on hard times especially offensively.

In the 107 games in which Cespedes was an inhabitant of their roster, Oakland sported a record of 66-41 and owners of a 2.5 games lead over the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. That record was also the best in baseball. Since then, the reverse has transpired. Over their last 50 games, Oakland is 20-30, worst record in their division (yes, worse than Houston) and second worst record in the entire AL (Minnesota is 19-32 over this time period).

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    • So, look at the Oakland’s offensive numbers for the two different periods.

    to July 30th: 107 G, .253/.329/.405, 112 HR, 535 R (5.00 R/G)
    after July 30th: 50 G, .221/.299/.329, 32 HR, 175 R (3.50 R/G)

    Simply by viewing these stats would lead you to believe that the departure of Cespedes has had a major impact on the A’s offense. They’re average a run and a half less per game without him.

    And don’t believe that the pitching is at fault here. The number from pre-Cespedes trade are not that different. The ERA is a touch higher (3.19 to 3.40) and opponents are scoring slightly more (3.46 R/G to 3.70 R/G), but these increases cannot be attributed to the A’s two-month swoon.

    And if you are one that likes to point a finger in one direction, you actually might have two. Look at the offensive output from two of its All-Stars: Derek Norris and Brandon Moss.

    You might think Norris is an odd choice here. When Cespedes was in Oakland, Norris hit on down the lineup a bit, usually 7th or 8th. But in that spot, he had opportunities to drive Cespedes in. And he did so 8 times. The only two players he has driven in more: Josh Donaldson (11) and himself (10).

    With the trade, Norris has been moved up in the lineup. And it appears to have taken a toll on his bat.

    w/Cespedes: .300/.401/.476
    w/o Cespedes: .232/.301/.305 (1 HR in 166 PA)

    And what of Brandon Moss?

    w/Cespedes: .259/.340/.503
    w/o Cespedes: .168/.324/.261 (2 HR in 148 PA)

    Moss was the guy hitting in front of Cespedes. That leads us to believe pitchers were being more aggressive in order to get him out. They didn’t want to provide Cespedes the opportunity to be that impact bat.

    Now, we cannot fully imply that the absence of Cespedes is the sole reason for Moss and Norris, but it is interesting to see these numbers and wonder how the absence of one player can make things appear so vastly different. Sure, opposing pitchers are most likely pitching to them in a different manner. In fact, I would almost bank on it.

    And notice I didn’t mention another All-Star in Josh Donaldson. He has posted a higher batting average (.247 to .265) and on-base percentage (.330 to .365) since the trade. His slugging is lower (.467 to .425).

    But here’s the odd part in this. Cespedes hasn’t exactly torn the cover off the ball since he was dealt to the Boston Red Sox.

    w/OAK: .256/.303/.464
    w/BOS: .263/.293/.430

    No extreme differences here, so what are we led to think?

    And another facet that we’ve not touched up on yet. This…

    With Oakland, Cespedes owned a total DRS of 6. With Boston for a little less than half the number of games, that total is 4.

    Now that we have all this statistical information and video evidence gathered, there is one area where Cespedes is likely missed: the clubhouse. And sometimes, missing one element can cause an entire mixture to fall apart. Sometimes, this part, while not able to be measured with a stat, suffers more than we know.

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