The quiet success of Alcides Escobar

Alcides Escobar has been the Kansas City Royals’ lead-off hitter for a majority of the 2014 postseason; however, in truth, he should not have been. I know he has had moderate success in the playoffs this year with a slightly above-average .721 OPS in just 66 plate appearances, but it is very hard to justify batting him first against a right-handed pitcher when half the Royals’ lineup is consumed with left-handed bats such as Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Nori Aoki, and Mike Moustakas. Four left-handed hitters in the Royals’ lineup, though, does not automatically debase the case for Escobar to bat first against a same-sided pitcher.

No, that would be his pedestrian .663 OPS against right-handers in 2014 and his even worse career .640 OPS against them. In fact, among the nine other Royals who have compiled more than 200 plate appearances against righties this year, the shortstop has the 7th worst wRC+, which is the most accurate offensive statistic in baseball, ahead of just Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas, and Omar Infante. Seeing as how nine of the twelve active pitchers on the Giants’ roster are right-handed — Madison Bumgarner, Javier Lopez, and Jeremy Affeldt being the exceptions — I am not sold on the logic behind Ned Yost batting Escobar first sans when Bumgarner takes the hill.

The truth of the matter is Alcides Escobar is a below-average hitter; he was in 2014 with a 94 wRC+ in juxtaposition to rest of the American League and he has been his entire career with a 76 wRC+.

Now, I do not work behind the scenes of the K.C. Royals like Yost does, so maybe there is a plausible rationale for Escobar leading off against Jake Peavy and Tim Hudson. Just from where I am sitting, looking at the data, I do not see it.

Okay. Maybe I was too harsh on Escobar there. He’s a terrific player and he improved tremendously from an offensive perspective in 2014. I even voted for the guy in our American League All-Star ballot — the lone vote, I might add. He is very underrated by the masses and despite my quarrel with him batting first, his quiet success was imperative to the Royals’ prosperity this season.

On the year, he slashed a respectable .285/.317/.377 clip and compiled a nice 3.5 fWAR. Actually, his fWAR ranked fifth among shortstops in baseball and second to only Erick Aybar among American League shortstops. As you may have guessed, a large part of Escobar’s excellent fWAR came from his base running and defense. With that said, he was an above-average hitter compared to other American League shortstops, so he provided value with the stick, as well.

But, like I said, his defense and base running were what really made the 27-year-old so fantastic. He stole 31 bases in 2014 and was only caught six times, while taking the extra base 30 of 48 times (63%) which ranked tenth-best in the A.L. His 6.2 BsR placed twelfth-best in baseball this year, ahead of every one of his speedy teammates.

Defensively, Escobar had a down year compared to his 2013 season. His 1.6 UZR (ultimate zone rating) was 9.3 points less than his 10.9 UZR in ’13, yet it still was an admirable total. Keep in mind, however, fielding metrics are imperfect, as they are subjectively formulated based on a combination of advanced data and perception. These metrics are still the best way, in my opinion, to gauge defensive value, but I would not read too much into them.

By the eye, Escobar is an amazing defensive commodity, but the eye plays tricks on us and the confirmation bias can be tricky to overcome. My guess is that Escobar was good, not great, on defense this year based on the numbers and my own judgement.

Still, Escobar played well on all aspects of a position players’ job, as he was a decent hitter, decent defender, and great base runner in 2014. This has been more or less in-line with his career play. He has always been an excellent base runner but usually he is an excellent defender, too, while providing below-average offensive contributions.

Another thing that was so impressive about him was the fact that he played in every single game this season. Not once was there a day when the Royals were playing and Escobar wasn’t in ’14. There’s value to being on the field day in and day out, and that is exactly what he did.

And that durability was a big piece why Escobar had the best season of his career, by fWAR at least. He never sat down and his talents were able to yield value for the Royals. This guy was a huge factor in where the Royals are today, like Danny Duffy who I wrote about a week ago, yet he, too, does not get nearly the recognition that he deserves. You heard it here, folks, Alcides Escobar should not bat first tonight! But, still, he is one hell of a ball player.