Did the Tigers give up too much to acquire Shane Greene?

The big news of the day came on Friday morning when it was reported that the New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks and Detroit Tigers agreed on a three-team trade. Going to the Big Apple as a result of the deal is shortstop Didi Gregorius from Arizona, going to Arizona is left-handed pitcher Robbie Ray and middle infield prospect Domingo Leyba from the Tigers, and going to Detroit is the surprisingly effective pitcher Shane Greene from the Yankees, who was a solid spot starter in 2014.

Whenever the Yankees do anything it is a headline. So, it came as no surprise to me that this was the Tweet from Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal in the a.m.

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I saw the Tweet almost at the exact moment as Rosenthal produced it, and I immediately began to ponder over who New York would have to give up to attain him. That thought was pushed off until later due to more pressing priorities and consequently it was not until later in the afternoon that I discovered it was actually a three-team trade, Greene, the lone man New York gave up, heading to the Motor City.

Considering Gregorius will more than likely be tasked with being the first player to replace the irreplaceable Derek Jeter as the Yankees’ shortstop, I kind of understand why he is getting all the attention and seemingly is being heralded as the key chip in this swap. With that said, personally, I think Greene is the most intriguing guy who was dealt in today’s deal.

A prospect who never got any hype, Greene pitched well in 78 2/3 innings — posting a 3.78 ERA and 3.73 FIP — with the Yankees after being called up to the big-league club in July. His success last year in large part can be credited to two things: 1.) his very impressive 9.27 K/9 (strikeouts per nine) and 2.) his very impressive 50.2 GB% (ground ball percentage). To reiterate, the 26-year-old flourished in 2014 because of his ability to miss bats and induce a lot of weak contract via way of the ground ball. In fact, among starters who logged at least 70 innings in 2014, Greene had the 41st-best  GB%.

(Greene’s first taste of MLB action was actually on April 24 against the Boston Red Sox. After that, he was sent back down and would not resurface until early-July where he impressed. From that point, he was a mainstay out of the rotation for the Yankees.)

The right-handed pitcher had three predominant pitches in his repertoire last year in the two-seam fastball, slider and curveball. His curveball, according to Fangraphs’ Pitch f/x data, was far and away his most effective pitch, as hitters salvaged just a paltry 4 wRC+ off the breaking ball last season. I do not want to get too detailed with his arsenal. This was just to give you a basic comprehension of how he does his work; nothing more.

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Anyway, as mentioned earlier, the Tigers had to unload southpaw prospect Robbie Ray and 19-year-old Domingo Leyba, who posted a cool .783 OPS between two low-level affiliates in Detroit’s system last year, to acquire Greene. For the Tigers and Dbacks, it was a swap for basically a question mark pitcher for a question mark pitcher and Leyba. Ray was a part of the trade last year that sent Doug Fister to Washington, and after a single year of pitching within their organization, Ray now takes his career 8.16 ERA to the West Coast.

Granted, that abysmal number is sort of unfair because the youngster has only logged 28 2/3 innings in the majors. If one would be so generous, I implore you to look at the 8.16 ERA he compiled last season with a grain of salt; however, the 4.22 ERA and horrendous peripherals he sported in Triple-A last year in nearly four times the amount of innings should cause some concern. Ray was probably regarded higher as a prospect than Greene was, but you could not tell that by just glancing at the numbers they amassed in small sample sizes during their rookie seasons. Greene, though, seemed a bit underrated to me while in the minors. Look at the numbers he put up in the minors over the past two seasons.

• 2014 Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre: 66 1/3 IP, 4.61 ERA, 3.40 FIP and 7.73 K/9
• 2013 Double-A Trenton: 79 1/3 IP, 3.18 ERA, 3.61 FIP, and 7.71 K/9
• 2013 Single-A+ Tampa: 75 IP, 3.60 ERA, 2.61 FIP, and 8.28 K/9

From both a FIP and ERA perspective Greene pitched consistently well, sans in ’14 with the ERA, in those two years while throwing in the minors. His decent MLB stats after viewing these make his early big league success a little bit less curious. Plus, Steamer Projections expects him to accumulate a 4.51 ERA and 4.42 FIP in 125 innings of work next season; certainly not great but acceptable for a number five starter, which is exactly what Greene is slotted as right now.

Ray is likely more of a project than Greene, but taking into account his high strikeout numbers in most levels of the minors it is not unreasonable to assume Ray has a higher ceiling. Leyba also has potential, rated as Detroit’s eighth-best prospect on Baseball America after last season ended. Greene, while being anything but a certainty, is more likely to contribute in ’15 than Ray and (obviously) Leyba. And that is a conspicuous benefit for Detroit considering they are looking to win in 2015.