Getting the first pitch strike may be important to the Boston Red Sox
On December 15, 2014 the Boston Red Sox remain “ace-less,” but still rate as the sixth-best projected rotation in the league according to Fangraphs’ Depth Charts in terms of fWAR, as their group of right now is slated to accumulate a 10.8 fWAR in 2015 ahead of both the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers. They may not have gotten Jon Lester to fans’ dismay, but they did get two above-average pitchers in Wade Miley and Rick Porcello, and a third starter who is a little bit more of a question mark in Justin Masterson. All three guys have something in common that Fangraphs’ Paul Swydan pointed out last week: they induce a lot of ground balls. Joe Kelly, who Boston acquired in a midseason trade with the St. Louis Cardinals for John Lackey, also gets hitters to hit a high amount of balls onto the ground.
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In previous years, as Swydan noted in his article, the Red Sox’ pitchers did not rank among the tops in baseball in ground ball percentage. This suggests that despite Fenway Park being a pull right-handed hitter and opposite field left-handed hitter’s paradise due to the presence of the Green Monster, Boston has not employed an organizational philosophy to bring in ground ball pitchers like one would expect. It seemed only a matter of time before they would, and the time may have arrived seeing as how all five of Boston’s starters —
Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Justin Masterson and Joe Kelly — possess above-average ground ball rates.
It seems seriously unlikely that this is pure coincidence, but there is something about two of the three additions that may be. Getting ahead of the count by getting the first strike is obviously beneficial for any pitcher, and this is something that Porcello and Miley do very well with. In fact, they both ranked in the top twenty-five last season in first pitch strike percentage with Porcello throwing a first-pitch strike 64.6% of the time, ranking 19th among qualified starting pitchers and Miley throwing a first-pitch strike 63.5% of the time in 2014, ranking 25th in the league. For frame of reference, the MLB average first pitch strike percentage was 60.6% last year.
In 2014 the Red Sox’ rotation ranked 26th out of 30 teams in first pitch strike percentage; in 2013 their starters placed 21st out of 30 teams in first pitch strike percentage. For the last two years, the Red Sox’ rotation has been one of the worst in baseball in getting that first pitch strike, and maybe they see this as something to improve upon as a group going forward. So, they went out and got two guys who excel at getting ahead of the count.
Or more likely, they went out and got two guys who improved their rotation who happened to get the first pitch strike at a frequent rate last year. After all, it was a career-year for both Porcello and Miley in that regard, as in previous years they have been just around average pitchers at getting the first pitch strike.