Expect a career year for Josh Donaldson in 2015
By Tim Boyle
We knew the Oakland Athletics had to do something this offseason following their collapse in 2014. Of all the moves we thought they would make, trading away third baseman Josh Donaldson was not one of them. It happened, we accept it, and we move on with the reminder that no one is safe from a trade.
Donaldson’s destination was an interesting one, shipped to another country to join the Toronto Blue Jays and an already potent starting lineup with above average pitching to help turn those runs into wins.
Over the last few seasons, a fascinating thing seems to happen whenever a player joins the Blue Jays. We saw it with Jose Bautista in 2010 when he launched 54 home runs and again with Edwin Encarnacion in 2012 when he hit 42. Both remain career highs and at the time were far more than either had hit in a single season. Most important of all, they remain a nightmare for opposing pitchers.
Simply coming to Toronto didn’t transform Bautista and Encarnacion into two of the best sluggers in baseball. They probably always had the potential and finally reached it. The coincidence, however, goes deeper than playing for the same team. Both Bautista and Encarnacion were 29-years-old when they had their breakthrough seasons. This also happens to be Donaldson’s age for the 2015 season. Even the biggest skeptic of the occult can feel a few hairs on the back of their neck at attention.
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Obviously, Donaldson has already done far more than Bautista and Encarnacion did before they got to Toronto. Donaldson finished in the top ten of MVP voting two years in a row and you could argue is the best third baseman in the league.
Deeper than some coincidence involving the uniform they wear and age is the fact that Donaldson is also in what is usually the prime of a player’s career.
A late start with only two complete seasons makes Donaldson’s performance in 2015 difficult to predict. One near guarantee for Donaldson could be an increase in home run numbers. The Blue Jays’ home, Rogers Centre, had the third most home runs per game in 2014 behind only Yankee Stadium and Coors Field. Certainly this could have a lot to do with actual player skill or bad pitching on behalf of the home team. Even if that is the case, there’s still one more reason to believe in Donaldson.
Maybe the most important factor in Donaldson having a career year in 2015 is the protection around him in the lineup. Although we do not know for sure in which order they will take their hacks, Donaldson has a much better offense around him than he did with the Athletics.
Donaldson will probably bat fifth for the Blue Jays behind Encarnacion with plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. When the 2015 season ends, several of Donaldson’s numbers may not be career highs. Blame this on the shared wealth throughout the lineup since not everyone can have 100+ RBIs and runs scored in the same season. Nevertheless, Donaldson has the perfect lineup around him to at least challenge.
For those who subscribe to the more mystical side of Donaldson and the 2015 season ahead, his first major league at-bat did take place in Toronto. Unfortunately it was a pinch hit strikeout.
The next day, Donaldson was put in the starting lineup for the first time ever. In the fourth inning, he hit a two-run home run to help the Athletics win 4-3. It probably means nothing or it could mean everything.
Tinfoil hats are not required or recommended when claiming Donaldson is about to have a career year. There’s enough evidence in the numbers, even if you want to ignore the conspiracies, to believe big things are about to happen for Donaldson.