Kelly Johnson is an interesting free agent

Kelly Johnson entered the 2014 season having played with two American League East teams in the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays, but ended the year having played with every single club the American League East had to offer, playing for three teams — the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles — in the course of a season. It was just that kind of year for Johnson, as his mediocre offensive production, slashing .215/.296/.362 in 297 plate appearances, was not desirable enough for any team to keep him around despite his defensive versatility.

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After signing a one-year, $3 million contract with New York in December of 2013, it seemed that the Yankees had exposed a niche on the market. In three of his previous four seasons, the then 31-year-old had compiled an fWAR north of 1.2 and was just three seasons removed from an amazing 5.4 fWAR season. A win, or one WAR, on the market is estimated to be worth $6 to $7 million; thus, it becomes evident why he was regarded as a steal: Johnson provided the Bronx Bombers with defensive versatility and had the capability to be an above-average offensive commodity.

But as noted in the first paragraph, he did not live up to that potential and instead sported a pedestrian 83 wRC+ in ’14. As a consequence, Johnson is now a free agent where his value is at an arguably all-time low.

While no sane team would want the version of Kelly Johnson that surfaced last season, is it likely that he plays as poorly as he did in 2014 going forward?

Last season the left-handed hitter mustered a, save the 2009 season, career-worst .266 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). He owns a career .302 BABIP, though, admittedly Johnson’s BABIP has been dwindling over the last couple of seasons, so it is entirely possible that his declining BABIP is a byproduct of getting worse with age opposed to an unlucky aberration.

If we take a look at his batted ball profile, which we will, we can get a sense for whether or not Johnson is due for a bounce back in BABIP and subsequently in overall performance. Now keep in mind that 297 plate appearances (what he amassed last year) is not really a viable sample size to derive conclusive opinions with the sustainability of one’s batted ball data. Nevertheless, here is Kelly Johnson’s batted ball data over the last three seasons as well as the MLB average last season.

(Note: these acronyms — LD%, GB%,  FB%, and IFFB% — that you see below stand for the following in order from left to right: line drive percentage, ground ball percentage, fly ball percentage, and infield fly ball percentage.) 

• 2012 (581 PA): 21.0 LD%, 45.2 GB%, 33.7 FB%, 9.4 IFFB%
• 2013 (366 PA): 15.2 LD%, 38.7 GB%, 46.1 FB%, 12.1 IFFB%
• 2014 (297 PA): 21.1 LD%, 49.0 GB%, 29.9 FB%, 3.4 IFFB%
• MLB Average in 2014: 20.8 LD%, 44.8 GB%, 34.4 FB%, 9.6 IFFB%

Before we discuss the above please acknowledge the following: Fangraphs calculates line drives produce 1.26 runs per out, whereas fly balls produce 0.13 runs per out and ground balls 0.05 runs per out.

Johnson’s 1.64 GB/FB ratio was the highest (and worst) in his nine-year career in ’14 and that is not encouraging. On the bright side, his line drive percentage last season was his best since 2008; however, line drive rates tend to fluctuate on a year to year basis more than any other batted ball type, so I would not count on it sticking in the future.

The margin by which his ground ball rate soared and his fly ball rate plummeted in ’14 is no doubt concerning. Even though it is a small sample size, one cannot completely chalk it up as simply the result of random variation. Truly, I do not think he is a guy who will from here on out hit close to half of his balls in play on the ground and less than thirty percent of his in the air. But I do think it is not erroneous to speculate Johnson’s age is playing a role in hitting balls with less authority.

Kelly Johnson is an interesting free agent. He comes with question marks, sure. Yet despite his disconcerting batted ball trends, I think he is worth taking a flyer on. There’s a guy in there who can be a league-average player, and for a player who will cost virtually nothing, I do not see why a team does not take a gamble on him.