Underrated reliever: Brett Cecil
By Tyler Birss
In the final edition of my three-part series on underrated relievers, Brett Cecil of the Toronto Blue Jays will be given an examination on his bullpen worth and lack of noticeable appreciation for his versatility. A 28-year-old lefty who began his Toronto days as a starting pitcher, Cecil’s found excellent form since becoming a full-time reliever in 2013. With this success, the undrafted hurler hailing from the University of Maryland won’t be turned back into a starter anytime soon.
To appreciate Cecil’s transformation as a reliever, first consider his numbers when he started games. From 2009 to 2012, he logged 74 starts and compiled a 28-26 record. His ERA ranged from 4.22 to 5.72 and opponents clipped him at an average between .256 and .308. Cecil allowed one or more hits per inning in three out of the four years. He won 15 games in 2010 and logged decent innings, but he was a starter with highly hittable stuff who struggled to prevent baserunners. This left Toronto with a fairly unreliable and fringe starting pitcher.
What’s Cecil now? An extremely bright spot on an otherwise underwhelming Blue Jays’ bullpen. Here’s a quick look at his statistical turnaround over the last two seasons. 2013: 60.2 innings pitched, 70 strikeouts, 2.82 ERA and 44 hits allowed. 2014: 53.1 innings pitched, 76 strikeouts, 2.70 ERA and just two home runs allowed. Like Jake McGee who was the first reliever discussed in this series, Cecil’s also a southpaw who isn’t a traditional lefty-on-lefty specialist. He’s a versatile lefty with a high strikeout rate who largely avoids the long ball.
Courtesy of FanGraphs, we see additional reasons for Cecil’s rediscovery. During his parts of four seasons as a starter, his fastball usage ranged from 43.9% to 55.6% of the time. This isn’t a dominant amount for a starter, but it’s enough to be considered regular. Out of the bullpen in 2013 and 2014, Cecil went to the heater on 41.4% and 34% of occasions. That dip opened the door for Cecil’s transformation source; his curveball. From 2009 to 2011, this pitch was never thrown more than 9% of the time. It rose to 23.8% in 2012. Full tinkering occurred in 2013 and 2014 as Cecil’s curveball became his ultimate love. He used it 32.6% of the time in 2013 and at an astounding 43.5% rate in 2014.
Cecil did more than just use his curveball in heavy doses though. He also managed to throw it with relentless efficiency. Out of his 369 curveballs in 2014, FanGraphs’ Pitchf/x section details that Cecil only allowed 16 hits on these offerings, 13 of which were singles. This out-pitch compensates for his 92.8 mph fastball average in 2014. Failed starters often let loose in the bullpen and throw harder. Cecil’s velocity has increased somewhat in relief, but his curveball growing into a monster is the primary reason for his newfound status. Cecil also had 52 of his 76 strikeouts on this breaking ball and opponents hit this pitch at a .165 average, by far the lowest oppositions batted against any Cecil selection.
It’s rare, potentially even unheard of, for a left-handed reliever to utilize a curveball on roughly 40% of his pitches. As mentioned earlier, Cecil’s unique for both his curveball usage and ability to handle both sides of the plate. His splits show us that he totaled 20.2 innings against lefties and 32.2 innings against righties in 2014. Lefties touched him for the following slash line: .244/.319/.395. He was better when facing righties: .210/.315/.254. More than acceptable against lefties, borderline dominant against righties. As all my underrated relievers articles indicate, versatility and the ability to handle any type of batter provides immense value.
This isn’t where it ends for Cecil though. McGee and Mark Melancon were featured in this series and had eye-popping, superb numbers this past season. Cecil might not be on that precise statistical level yet, but he’s on the rise. While McGee and Melancon have been relievers their entire pro careers, Cecil is a candidate to continue evolving as he learns the positional ropes. His present value is already substantial though and forward trends seemingly indicate future success. Cecil’s mostly unknown outside of Toronto despite being one of the best left-handed relievers in baseball. Until this recognition changes, Cecil stands out as an underrated gem north of the border.