Houston Astros gained an ace due to Dallas Keuchel’s off-speed approach
The Good news is, it took the Houston Astros only five innings of spring ball work from Dallas Keuchel to anoint him their Opening Day starter for 2015. The bad news is, no starter — Opening Day or otherwise — has finished a season with more than 15 wins since Roy Oswalt did as much back in 2008 with 17.
The Astros also happen to be absent of a starting pitcher receiving an All-Star nod to the Midsummer Classic since Oswalt accomplished as much in the 2007 year prior to his 17 win season.
Houston is coming off a 2014 season where the starters ranked 20th in wins, 19th in ERA and 14th in innings pitched. There is room for much improvement and Keuchel appears to be an authentic front-end of the rotation guy.
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Climbing Tal's Hill
After mostly laboring through a combined 47 starts from 2012-13, the southpaw turned a major corner in his age 26 season. In 2014 he relied more heavily on his slider as a secondary pitch and demoted his four-seam fastball to a tertiary pitch. The result? Keuchel’s highest strikeout percentage on a single pitch since becoming a pro with a mark of 43.1 percent using the slider. It may have made his four-seamer mildly less useful as a punch out tool, but it also created more utility for his other off-speed offering. His changeup stymied only 12.4 percent of would-be-hitters in 2013, compared to 15.5 percent in 2014.
Keuchel’s confidence in his offspeed pitches has translated to instantaneous success and has also helped him improve his stamina and efficiency. In 2013 he threw 100-plus pitches in only 10 of his 22 starts, resulting in zero complete games. Last season, he hurled over 100 pitches in 20 of his 29 games started, correlating to five complete games (which led all of MLB) and a shutout.
All things appear to be trending upward thanks to Keuchel nodding off the catcher more frequently when he’s called upon for a fastball. His ERA of 2.93 ranked fourth best in the American League amongst all starters with at least 200 IP in 2014. His FIP of 3.21 was equally impressive and his WAR of 5.1 was the second highest on the club and seventh highest by any MLB starter with a minimum of 200 IP.
The University of Arkansas product can likably be labeled a workhorse by Astros for having logged 200 IP in only 29 starts. While it’s an admirable title for a starting pitcher in baseball, it may not be a necessary one for Keuchel in 2015. Free agency brought with it Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek to the Houston Astros, two reliable relief arms that will supply a 30th ranked bullpen ERA from 2014 with increased confidence this year.
The Astros used a seventh round pick on Dallas Keuchel in 2009. He was the the third pitcher they selected in the draft. Not only did the club get a guy who reached the big leagues before any of the seven players selected ahead of him, the Astros gained an ace who will go the distance for them.
Not since Brett Myers in 2011 has a starter logged 200 IP for Houston in a season, but Myers’ ERA of 4.46 can’t touch Keuchel’s 2.93 mark from last year with a ten foot pole.