MLB Rookies 2015: What’s all the fuss about?
I’ve read a lot of articles and comment threads recently talking about what MLB rookies are worthy and should play in the All-Star Game. Who is better than who or general discontent as to why they are receiving so much more buzz than some second or third-year breakout players are other common themes. There is lot attention being placed on players in their freshman year. But just where is it justified, and why?
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Over at MLB.com, Phil Rogers wrote a piece stirring the pot as to whether the Cubs’ Kris Bryant or Dodgers’ Joc Pederson is most deserving of an ASG roster spot in the NL. It was published on May 10, which is a bit premature in my opinion. To a passive baseball fan even just reading the headline, they might assume that voting either of the two rookies into the ASG would be an acceptable endeavor. But really, between Bryant and Pederson — right here, right now — it’s not really an argument to begin with.
Pederson’s bid to be in the Midsummer Classic is justified and probably will continue to be six weeks from now. White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu was the last rookie position player to appear in an ASG in 2014 and before him, Bryce Harper and Mike Trout in 2012’s also greatly hyped rookie campaign. While Trout’s rookie season may never be replicated again by a first year position player (10.8 WAR), Pederson through 32 games is more than giving Harper’s 2012 campaign a run for its money.
Harper was hitting .288 with a .922 OPS, five home runs, 12 RBI and 22 runs scored as a 19-year-old rookie after 32 games. Pederson is currently hitting .255 with an OPS of 1.004. He has nine home runs, 20 RBI and has scored 23 runs. While his batting average is not overly impressive at the moment, he is second in all of MLB with 28 walks, behind only Harper. Pederson is a year older than Harper is now, but for his first ever stint in the show, Pederson is showing unparalled plate discipline. Harper finished with a .340 OBP in 2012. Pederson’s .422 mark is currently dwarfing that.
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But the young Dodgers center fielder is also doing other things besides offensively being top 10 league-wide in OBP, SLG and OPS. Pederson is helping offset the loss of Yasiel Puig in the clubs outfield and is playing Gold Glove caliber defense in center at the same time. The Cuban outfielder’s hamstring injury has cleared the way for another Cuban rookie sensation in 2015, Alex Guerrero.
In the lesser-educated ASG voters mind it is Bryant vs. Pederson, but to anyone following baseball closely, it should be Pederson vs. Guerrero. True, Guerrero is 28, but that didn’t sway the BBWAA last year in voting Abreu AL ROY at age 27.
When Puig made his first ASG in his sophomore 2014 season, he slashed .309/.393/.522 with 12 home runs and 52 RBI across 394 first half plate appearances. Before Guerrero started getting regular playing time, he was still making the best of his limited at-bats. That hasn’t changed. He’s had only 56 at-bats this season and since Dodgers outfielders Puig and Carl Crawford hit the disabled list, but he’s hitting .353/.393/.784 with six home runs and 16 RBI. He has half the first half home runs as Puig had last year in 1/7 the number of plate appearances.
So while Pederson has the starting center field gig locked down for the Dodgers, the only thing that could hinder Guerrero’s chances of making the ASG or competing for NL ROY honors in September would be a return to health by Puig and/or Crawford, forcing possibly he and Andre Eithier back into platoon roles.
May 9, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Devon Travis (29) reacts to a hit during the first inning in a game against the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre. The Toronto Blue Jays won 7-1. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
Bryant just swatted his first home run on Monday and since went yard a second time. Fellow Cub and rookie Addison Russell hit two home runs in his debut season long before Bryant did. Bryant’s K% of 31.5 is the 10th worst in MLB. While Pederson’s is higher (33.3), his WAR (1.8) and SLG (.522) and wRC+ (170) far outshine Bryant’s similar peripheral category numbers of 0.8, .460 and 143 in only eight more games.
There is still a great deal of time left until July’s All-Star break in Cincinnati. A lot can change and a lot can still happen. While the American League holds less intrigue than the National League’s spread of MLB rookies, Blue Jays 2B Devon Travis has a decent opportunity to make the AL’s ASG roster.
Until Kris Bryant starts clobbering home runs at a higher rate than one in every 43.5 at-bats, the hype needs to quiet down. Joc Pederson is the only one justifying any noise, and frankly, is looking eerily similar in ways to his cross town center field peer in Anaheim.