Billy Hamilton’s Overall Value Still Up for Debate?
By Josh Sippie
No one is doubting Billy Hamilton‘s speed. That’s a losing debate. But one thing that can be debated about Billy Hamilton is his overall value as a ball player.
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For starters, he’s the fastest guy in the league, and the fastest guy that baseball has seen in recent memory and beyond. He’s only reached base 35 times this year and he has 17 steals. Through basic arithmetic, you can deduce that he therefore nabs a stolen base right about 50% of the time that he reaches base. He obviously also has superb range in the outfield, but even with that, speed is his one and only tool.
Even as a prospect, Billy Hamilton’s overall value was questioned because the concern was that he wouldn’t be able to get on base. That bit of concern is coming true. This year, he’s batting a minuscule .211 with an OBP of .266. FanGraphs has looked into the possibility of him bunting for hits more and the report isn’t all that great. Teams expect the bunt from someone that only has speed. He’s attempted 10 bunts this year, the most of any player in the league, but he has only reached base once on bunts, on his 10th try.
This lack of OBP could really hinder Billy Hamilton’s overall contribution. After all, you can’t steal first base. Think about the greatest base thief of all time, Rickey Henderson, he had a career average of .279 but he also hit home runs and found gaps so that teams couldn’t key off on his one talent, because he had numerous abilities and multiple ways to get on base. Billy Hamilton doesn’t.
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Now let’s consider the other stolen base leaders in the MLB. Of the top five, only Billy Hamilton is hitting under .300. That’s both remarkable and alarming. He has five more steals than second place Dee Gordon, and Gordon is hitting .426. Billy Hamilton also has the highest strikeout count of the top five but again, he’s still causing havoc on the base paths and making each time he touches first base a threat, so his value is still pretty well up there. He’s also third in runs in the MLB among all leadoff hitters which is a pretty telling stat as well.
But you have to wonder if Billy Hamilton’s one-dimensional skill set could come back to haunt the Reds. After all, his WAR and all similar stats are nothing to write home about, they’re pretty standard. Given that the Reds have a lot invested in Billy Hamilton and no intent on replacing him anytime soon, he’s the guy for the long run. The only concern is as it has always been with the speedy Billy Hamilton – can he consistently get on base?