Struggling Strasburg must alter approach
By Tim Haberin
While Bryce Harper tears the cover off every ball he sees, the Washington Nationals‘ other former Number 1 overall draft pick is not faring nearly as well. Stephen Strasburg is sporting an ugly 6.50 ERA through nine starts. Alarm bells are sounding around the one-time super-prospect, and many around the game are pondering what exactly is amiss with the 26-year-old starting pitcher.
One of the more startling things about the 2015 version of Strasburg is how early he is being chased from games. Three of his last four starts have seen him fail to get through the fourth inning. His longest outing to date was 7.1 frames against the Phillies on April 19. For a hurler who in many eyes should be ace-like, that is a serious lack of length Strasburg is providing to the Nats.
Of course, Strasburg has never exactly been a workhorse. Last season, the first campaign in which he exceeded 200 innings pitched, he averaged about 6.1 innings per start. A solid, though not quite remarkable number. 2012 and 2013 saw him throw averages of 5.2 and 6.0 innings, respectively. Injuries and pitch limits have played a part, but Strasburg hasn’t been the starter you count on for a major workload.
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If you’re a hard-to-please type, you may find Strasburg’s first several seasons in the big leagues a bit underwhelming in general. He has been very good at times but hasn’t quite morphed into the perennial Cy Young contender that most assumed he would be when he burst onto the scene as a 21-year-old armed with a 99 mph fastball. Last year was actually the first time he cracked the top 10 in NL Cy Young voting.
Regardless of whether or not you believe he has stacked up to expectations, Strasburg is worlds better than a 6.50 ERA. So what in particular has gone wrong for him in the first couple months of 2015? Perhaps the most noticeable thing is the out-of-control rate at which he is allowing hits. Through 44.1 total innings of work, Strasburg has given up 62 hits, which comes out to an unseemly 12.6 H/9. His walks are up and strikeouts are down a bit from last year as well, but the biggest difference so far has been his propensity to allow more than a hit per inning.
Strasburg is not stranding all those extra runners on base either. His left-on-base percentage has dropped to 57.8% this year, down from five consecutive years of at least 70%. Plenty of those hits Strasburg is giving up are being turned into runs, consistently and reliably. This inability to avoid big innings, letting sticky situations to spiral out of control, has been the right-hander’s most glaring weakness this season.
Some adjustments in pitch selection may also tell part of the story. Strasburg has always relied on his fastball as his go-to weapon. His usage of the pitch this year, however, has been heavy even by his standards. He is throwing it 57.7% of the time, up from 40.8% a year ago. Strasburg is also throwing his curveball more as a secondary pitch in 2015. That is not an unprecedented move for him, but it marks an alteration from last season when he threw his changeup and two-seamer more often.
Unfortunately for Strasburg, batters have feasted on his fastball and curveball this season. Opponents are hitting .321 against the fastball and .324 when faced with the curve, an enormous increase from last year’s .271 and .225, respectively. That is not the most welcome trend when those pitches account for 76.4% of his total.
Though Strasburg does not flirt with triple digits quite like he did when he first entered the league, his velocity so far is fairly consistent with the last couple seasons. But even a tick or two lost on that fastball can make it appear much more hittable. Strasburg needs to re-evaluate the way he approaches hitters and consider mixing up his pitches a bit more. Throwing his changeup (.263 BAA) more often might be a decent place to start.
Things may also improve organically as the season progresses. His opponents’ .390 BABIP will likely decline. Strasburg’s 3.67 FIP is also nearly three runs lower than his ERA. But while some natural statistical corrections may help, it’s clear that Strasburg is simply getting beat way too often with his current gameplan.
The Nationals’ recent hot streak, as well as the tremendous pitching of offseason prize Max Scherzer, alleviates some of the immediate pressure on Strasburg as he attempts to find himself. By season’s end, however, Washington will certainly expect his results to more closely match his talent level.