MLB Spring Training: Cincinnati Reds Full Preview

2015 was a struggle for the Cincinnati Reds. They limped to their worst winning percentage since 1982, and by late July it was clear that it was time to unload some of their most valuable trade pieces. Thus far the rebuilding efforts have included shipping out Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman.

While the rebuild began in 2015, the start of the 2016 season brings an opportunity to take the next step in the process. Cincinnati is unlikely to compete for a playoff spot, but there are still a number of interesting questions to consider. Will any other established players be on the move? Will any of the prospects the Reds acquired in these trades make a push for major league playing time this season? Here is what to look for in Cincinnati in 2016.

Key Offseason Additions: 2B Jose Peraza (#24 on MLB’s Top 100 Prospect List), RHP Rookie Davis (Reds 8th ranked prospect by MLB), 3B Eric Jagielo (Reds 9th ranked prospect by MLB)

Key Offseason Subtractions: 3B Todd Frazier, RP Aroldis Chapman

The Rotation: By the end of 2015 the Reds starting rotation looked very different from the beginning of the season. A month into the season Homer Bailey required season ending surgery for a UCL tear. Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake were dealt prior to the trade deadline. All of this turn over in the rotation lead to the Reds breaking a 113-year-old record by starting a rookie pitcher in 64 straight games.

Homer Bailey should return from Tommy John surgery sometime in May. With the loss of Cueto, Bailey assumes the role of Cincinnati’s #1 starter. Reds fans will hope for a return to his 2012-13 production. Prior to the 2014 season Bailey signed a six-year, $105M contract, and the hope was that he could be their ace for years to come. Since signing the deal he has underperformed and struggled with injuries, but for Cincinnati’s rebuilding efforts to move forward they will need him to return to form.

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The rest of the rotation will be filled out by many of the rookies who debuted last season. Anthony DeSclafani had the most impressive debut season from that group. Over 184 innings he accumulated a 4.05 ERA (though his 3.67 FIP suggests he was a bit better), and he struck out 151 hitters.

Raisel Iglesias should slot in as the #3 starter. The 25-year-old Cuban was signed by the Reds in 2014, and he had some impressive moments last year. The final two spots in the rotation could be filled by 3-4 different pitchers over the course of the season. John Lamb and Brandon Finnegan, who were both acquired in the deal for Cueto, could make a push for the final two spots. Jon Moscot, who made his debut with the Reds last year could also push for a slot in the back end of the rotation. Michael Lorenzen started 21 games for the Reds last year and could be a factor as well.

It is also worth keeping an eye on several of the Reds highest-rated pitching prospects as they are likely to see time this season. Candidates to make starts for the big league club are Robert Stephenson and Amir Garrett.

The Lineup: Outside of the loss of Todd Frazier the Reds lineup should not look too different in 2016. Devin Mesoraco will return from hip surgery and hopefully can pick up some of Frazier’s lost production. Joey Votto had an MVP-level season in 2015 and for the Reds to surprise he will have to be just as good. With the return of Zack Cozart from ACL surgery Eugenio Suarez will slide over to cover 3B. There is still a big question mark in LF as some combination of Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler would start as of today.

Of course the Reds offense is still facing the age old question, “Will Billy Hamilton figure it out at the plate this season?” By Fangraphs’ base running metric BsR, Hamilton was still the most valuable player in MLB on the base paths last season. Hamilton was 13.4 runs above average on the base paths. Mookie Betts finished second in that statistic at 8.3. What is most incredible about that stat is that Hamilton tallied those numbers with a .274 OBP. If he could begin to approach a league average OBP there is no telling how many runs he could be worth.

Possible Lineup:

2B Brandon Phillips
1B Joey Votto
C Devin Mesoraco
RF Jay Bruce
LF Adam Duvall
SS Zack Cozart
3B Eugenio Suarez
CF Billy Hamilton

The Bullpen: Since 2011 the Reds bullpen was anchored by one of the most dominant closers in baseball history. Now Aroldis Chapman is in New York, and there are a lot of questions about Cincinnati’s bullpen setup. J.J. Hoover, Tony Cingrani, and Jumbo Diaz are likely to compete for the opening day closer’s role. Some combination of those three will likely anchor the Reds’ high-leverage situations. If Michael Lorenzen does not earn a rotation spot he could also find a meaningful role in the bullpen.

By ERA, FIP, SO/9, and LOB% the Reds hovered around a bottom third bullpen in 2015. The loss of Chapman is clearly a huge blow, and late game situations could be an adventure in Cincinnati this year.

Competition: At most positions the Reds every day starter appears to be clear. LF will remain the biggest question mark heading into Opening Day. The trio of Duvall, Cave, and Schebler are listed on the depth chart, but no one expects any of those to be the long term solution. Jesse Winker, the Reds #2 rated prospect, could finally make a push for time in LF this season. Barring injuries this is likely the only real position battle to watch. Once the season gets going it will be interesting to see if Cincinnati’s top prospect, Jose Peraza, begins to make a push for some time in the infield.

If Devin Mesoraco suffers a setback then Tucker Barnhart should assume most of the catching duties.

Outlook: It became clear last season that the Reds were not going to be able to compete in the incredibly formidable NL Central. The rebuild was kicked off by the trades of Cueto and Leake, and this offseason saw the departure of Frazier and Chapman. As the season goes on it will be interesting to see which other Reds players come up in trade discussions. A Jay Bruce trade has been rumored for several seasons now. Is this the year that he finally moves? Will Brandon Phillips waive his no-trade clause if a contender is interested in him at the deadline?

Next: Red Sox Spring Training Preview

This outlook section focuses on potential trades for a reason. This has the potential to be an ugly season in Cincinnati. The offense could remain productive, but there is not nearly enough quality pitching to dream of making a surprise playoff run this year. The Cincinnati Reds won their fewest amount of games since 1982 last season, and they might make another run at that mark this year.

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