MLB Spring Training: Washington Nationals Full Preview
2015 In Review:
The Washington Nationals were supposed to be the favorite to not only win the National League pennant, but many baseball pundits were picking them to win the World Series prior to the 2015 season. In fact, in an ESPN poll predicting the 2015 season’s outcome, the Nats received 85 out of 88 votes to win the NL East.
They also were picked by 42 percent of the experts to win the World Series, which was the most of any team. We know now that Washington did neither of those things, but looking back it was easy to see why many people considered Washington the best team in the major leagues.
The club had stud free agent signee Max Scherzer leading their rotation with proven starters like Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez also in the clubs’ rotation. The team was also very confident that former highly touted prospect Stephen Strasburg would start to become the once-in-a-generation pitcher he was hyped up to be as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 MLB Draft.
However, the rotation did not perform up to the team’s expectations. While Scherzer was spectacular for most of the year, pretty much every one of the Nationals other starters took a step back. On a positive note, this allowed starting pitching prospect Joe Ross to show that he could perform very well at the major league level.
The Nationals’ lineup also looked to be very solid on paper. Outfielder Bryce Harper proved to be one of the best hitters in the MLB en route capturing his first NL MVP award. Third baseman Yunel Escobar was also solid for the club. Even with these successes, there were many hitters in the Nationals lineup that regressed from years past.
Aging veterans Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth showed they may be on the decline. Middle infielders Danny Espinosa and Ian Desmond suffered down seasons as well. Washington also had to turn to backup outfielder Michael Taylor to replace their leadoff hitter in Denard Span, who only appeared in 61 games in 2015.
The Nationals bullpen performed nicely for most of the year until they traded for former Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon, which threw off the team’s clubhouse chemistry. Overall, the Nationals stayed competitive for most of the season, but ultimately could never go on a run at the end of the year to earn a spot in the postseason.
The Rotation:
- Max Scherzer
- Stephen Strasburg
- Gio Gonzalez
- Joe Ross
- Tanner Roark
With the loss of Jordan Zimmerman to the Detroit Tigers, the Nationals starting rotation doesn’t look as good on paper as it did last season. However, this is by no means a bad rotation; there is actually a decent amount of upside to their group of starting pitchers. Max Scherzer is on the second year of the seven year mega-deal he signed with the team last offseason.
Scherzer was the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young for the first couple of months of the 2015 season. The righty’s production did fall of a little bit in the second half the year, but he still finished the season with an ERA under 3.00 with a strikeout rate of 10.9 per nine innings, which was the second highest of his career. Scherzer should continue with this production in 2016 and he should be one of the top starting pitchers in the entire league.
Stephen Strasburg continues to be one of the most intriguing starting pitchers in MLB, as we wait to see when he will consistently dominate opposing lineups. Strasburg still has the powerful stuff that he did in his rookie season, he just has not entered the elite group of starting pitchers. The former top prospect has had success, as he has finished each of the past four years with a sub-3.50 ERA.
However, he hasn’t finished a season with an under-3.00 ERA since 2010. Strasburg’s walk rate has decreased over the past couple of seasons, which is a really good sign for the 27 year-old. Strasburg may not become the elite pitcher everyone thought he would be, but he should perform very well in 2016.
Right-hander Joe Ross, brother of Padres ace Tyson Ross, flashed some serious potential during his rookie season. Ross was forced into the starting rotation after injuries and underwhelming performance, and the young hurler did not disappoint. Like his brother, Ross has a fastball that sits in the mid-90’s which he uses to rack up a ton of swing and misses, as he averaged 8.1 K’s per nine innings in 2015.
He ended the year with a 3.64 ERA and he should improve as he racks up more starts. The major weakness that Ross has in his game right now is that he walks a few too many hitters. If he can learn how to control his pitches better, Ross should cement himself as a top-of-the-rotation option for the Nats for years to come.
Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark should be solid options at the back of the rotation for Washington, even though there should be some concern for both starters. Once an ace for the Oakland A’s, Gio Gonzalez has just not been the same type of pitcher the past couple of seasons.
Many former A’s pitchers suffer a decrease in production when they move to other teams, and it seems that the lefty has fallen into the pattern. Nonetheless, Gonzalez was solid in 2015, finishing the year with a 3.79 ERA. The decrease in production should concern Nationals fans, though.
Tanner Roark was a huge surprise in 2014, as the unheralded starter finished the 2014 season with a 2.85 ERA, and led the team to an NL East title. Unfortunately for Roark, he was pushed out of the starting rotation last season because of the Scherzer signing, and was relegated to bullpen duty.
This had a negative effect on him; the 29 year-old right-hander finished the year with a 4.35 ERA. As a pitcher, Roark isn’t anything particularly special. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and he hasn’t racked up real impressive strikeout numbers. Roark is a decent No. 5 starter, but his spectacular 2014 season doesn’t seem like it will become a trend. If the Nationals want to have an elite starting rotation, they may have to upgrade over Roark by the trade deadline.
The Lineup:
- CF Ben Revere
- 2B Daniel Murphy
- 3B Anthony Rendon
- RF Bryce Harper
- LF Jayson Werth
- C Wilson Ramos
- 1B Ryan Zimmerman
- SS Danny Espinosa
- Pitcher Spot
The Nationals went big this offseason trying to upgrade their lineup. The Nats pursued outfielders like Jason Hayward and Yoenis Cepsedes, but unfortunately for Washington they seem to finish as the runner-up for both middle-of-the-order hitters.
The team did well to acquire second-tier hitters like 2B Daniel Murphy and OF Ben Revere to upgrade the lineup. Both of these hitters will effectively be replacing Denard Span and Ian Desmond in the lineup. While these players may not be seen as an upgrade over these players, neither Span or Desmond produced for the club last season.
Murphy is best known for his historic postseason, but he did have a really good regular season as well. The former Met hit .281 and hit a career high 14 bombs in 2015. The 30 year-old second baseman may not be as good as his postseason numbers indicate, but he should be a solid player for the Nationals next season. Revere is pretty much a carbon copy of Denard Span, a leadoff hitter who gets on-base and wreaks havoc on the base paths, but gives the lineup no power production.
Bryce Harper is arguably the best hitter in MLB right now. He has some of the best power the league has seen in a while, and he should pick up right where he left off in 2015. There is even room for improvement for Harper next season being that he is only 23 years old, as scary as that sounds.
Anthony Rendon is probably the second-best hitter on the club even though he only played in 80 games last season. It’s not a good sign Rendon didn’t play in the second half of 2015, but he has the potential to be one of MLB’s best third basemen.
In 2014, he hit .287 and hit more 20 home runs. The Nationals drafted him 6th overall in 2011 because he has the ability to hit for a high average in addition to having above average power numbers. Rendon should have a bounce-back season in 2016.
Expectations shouldn’t be very high for Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman, though. Both players are in their mid-30’s and even though they have been all-stars in the past, their skills and production have been declining over the past couple of seasons.
Zimmerman is beloved by the Nationals and their fans because he stuck with the team during their down years in the 2000’s and because he has put up great numbers for the club over the years. This is not the same player that he was five years ago. He has played in under 100 games in both 2014 and 2015, and his numbers fell drastically last season.
Just by watching Zimmerman, it looks like he has lost a step and his injury issues have also forced him to move from third to first base. Werth was also once a middle-of-the-order hitter for the Philadelphia Phillies. However, the 36-year-old outfielder had possibly the worst year of his career in 2015.
Werth finished the season with a .221 batting average and hit only 12 home runs, which was his lowest total since 2012, when he only appeared in 81 games. Like Zimmerman, Werth had trouble with injuries as wrist injuries caused him to miss 74 games. Both veterans have had good careers, but all of those innings may have finally caught up to them. Overall, the the Nationals lineup is solid but unspectacular featuring multiple veteran hitters whose upside is limited.
The Bullpen:
The Nationals bullpen was lead by closer Drew Storen for the first half of the season. Then he lost his job when the Nats traded for disgruntled closer Jonathan Papelbon. The fiery right-hander has proven to be an effective relief pitcher throughout his career, but he has also proven that he can be a cancer in the clubhouse at times.
When Papelbon took over as a closer in late July, this had a negative effect on not only Drew Storen, but the entire team. Washington’s pen started to blow leads and Papelbon was not nearly as good as he was. He even started a fight with Bryce Harper after the Nationals were eliminated from postseason contention.
Washington traded Storen this offseason knowing that the two relief pitchers couldn’t coexist. Papelbon now enters the upcoming season as the club’s undoubted closer. This could be a positive for Papelbon knowing that there is nobody breathing down his neck to close. Only time will tell if he harmed the relationships with his teammates past repair with his antics last season. It should be an interesting situation to watch.
Washington did add a couple of new faces to its bullpen this winter. The club added left-hander Oliver Perez and righty Shawn Kelley to help beef up the back of the pen. Last season, Kelly proved himself to be a reliable reliever with the Padres as he finished 2015 with a 2.45 ERA and an impressive strikeout rate of 11 per nine innings.
Oliver Perez was also good last season as he pitched to a 4.10 ERA to end the year, but was more impressive as he had an ERA just over 3.00 when he was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Astros at the trade deadline. The bullpen is rounded out by Blake Treinen and Yusmeiro Petit, who both figure to be solid options behind Papelbon, Kelley and Perez.
2016 Outlook:
The Nationals still have many talented players on their roster and their rotation could be one of the best in the league if Strasburg and Ross make the strides that the club is hoping they will. The Nationals’ lineup is littered with veterans and is anchored by one of the best hitters in the game in Bryce Harper.
However, the rest of the Nats’ lineup seems unspectacular. Washington is also taking a gamble with their team chemistry by keeping Jonathan Papelbon as their closer, but the addition of a few new bullpen arms will help to settle down the end of games for the team.
After re-signing Cespedes, the Mets should still be considered the favorite in the division, but the Nationals figure to contend. With the talent currently on the Nats roster, though, there is no reason to think a playoff berth is out of the question.
How do you think that Nationals will fare in 2016? Post your thoughts in the comment section below.