Boston Red Sox: The Class of the American League?

The Boston Red Sox have had quite the rapid turnaround. Are they the best team in the American League?

Two seasons ago the Boston Red Sox finished last in the AL East with a 71-91 record. It was clear that changes needed to be made to the roster, and prior to the 2015 season some major changes were made. The most well known of these moves were the signings of free agents Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. The middle of Boston’s lineup immediately had a new look. Would it be enough to get them back on track?

Unfortunately for the Red Sox, things didn’t go quite as planned. Ramirez and Sandoval combined for an incredibly disappointing -3.8 fWAR. The offense as a whole was average (98wRC+), but the pitching continued to struggle. The Red Sox were next to last in the AL in ERA (4.34), and a 4.17 FIP reveals this wasn’t a fluke . A mediocre lineup plus a struggling pitching staff isn’t a recipe for success, and not surprisingly the Red Sox finished last again in the AL East with a 78-84 record.

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Again, it was clear that changes needed to be made. Those changes began at the top prior to the end of the 2015 season. In August they hired former Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski as the new president of baseball operations. He wasted little time in putting his stamp on the roster. In order to bolster the bullpen Boston acquired Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith via trade prior to 2016. A major addition was also made to the starting rotation when the Red Sox signed David Price to a seven year contract worth $217M. Would these additions be enough to get Boston headed in the right direction?

So far in 2016 this looks like a very different Red Sox team. At 22-13 they are tied with the Baltimore Orioles for first place in the division. Lately their offense looks like one of the best in baseball. Over the past four games they’ve scored at least 11 runs, and their +58 run differential is best in the AL.

The Red Sox are clearly in contention through baseball’s first two months. However, maybe a bigger question needs to be asked. Is it possible that the Red Sox are now the AL’s best team? Lets take a look at the lineup and pitching staff to see how they’re pulling this off.

Offense

Given the amount of runs that the Red Sox have scored recently it shouldn’t come as a major surprise that statistically they have one of baseball’s best offenses. By wRC+ (128) they’ve been the best offense in all of baseball. They lead MLB with 207 runs scored, and they’re second in the league in steals with 27. You can also add first in batting average, first in slugging, and third in OBP to that list of accomplishments.

Part of this success stems from the production of their well known veterans. Even at forty years old David Ortiz is having a career year. He’s currently hitting .319/.401/..672 to go along with 9 HR and 30 RBI. It’s tough to imagine that he can keep this pace up, but even if he regresses a little he will still be incredibly valuable.

Dustin Pedroia has been a fixture in the Red Sox lineup since 2007, and he’s also off to his best start in a handful of years. Among AL 2B he’s top five in average, on-base percentage, slugging and wRC+. Hanley Ramirez is also experiencing a resurgence at the plate following his disappointing 2015 campaign. Boston moved him over to first base in the off season, and without the scrutiny on his defense he has looked more like the player that they signed prior to the 2015 season.

While the veterans in the lineup have continued to produce, it is some of Boston’s younger players that have made this team so formidable at the plate. Jackie Bradley and Travis Shaw are having two of the most productive offensive seasons in the Red Sox lineup. Bradley was a highly touted prospect a few seasons ago, but until recently he’s struggled at the plate. Since August he’s looked more like the player that fans were expecting, and the Red Sox are hopeful that he’s turned a corner. Shaw surprisingly won the starting spot at third from Pablo Sandoval, and he’s responded by hitting .320/.387/.539. Again, both players might be candidates to regress a little, but for now this is a lineup that no pitcher in the AL wants to face.

Pitching

While the offense has been on fire, there are still concerns about Boston’s pitching. The Red Sox have given up the most run in the AL East (149), but that’s still better than six other AL teams. David Price, who was expected to give this rotation its much needed ace, is currently sporting a 6.00 ERA. His 2.53 FIP suggests that he’s actually been much better than his ERA suggests. In his most recent start on Thursday he looked more like the pitcher Boston thought they were getting. Against Houston he gave up 1 run in 6.2 innings and struck out 12. Jonathan Costa of ESPN recently broke down the reasons for Price’s early season struggles.

While Price has struggled, Steven Wright has been otherworldly for Boston up to this point. The thirty one year old knuckleballer is 3-3 with a 1.52 ERA. Rick Porcello is off to a much better start in 2016 after his disastrous debut for the Red Sox in 2015. If Wright and Porcello continue to pitch well, and Price rebounds, it would give the Red Sox a nice 1-2-3 punch at the top of the rotation.

Dave Dombrowski made a significant investment in Boston’s bullpen prior to this season, but up to this point they’ve continued to struggle. Boston relievers have given up the fourth most runs in the AL (258), and they have the third worst ERA (4.24). Craig Kimbrel is having a fine season, although he hasn’t quite looked like the elite closer they thought they were acquiring. Carson Smith has been injured for much of the season, but he finally returned at the beginning of May. Thus far he’s pitched two scoreless innings, and his return should be a major upgrade to Boston’s late inning options.

Next: Kyle Lohe Signs With Rangers

Conclusion

So what should we make of the Red Sox up to this point? It’s clear that they are one of the better teams in the AL, but it’s probably a stretch to call them the best team in the AL. If you’re looking for reasons to doubt this hot start you could point to the fact that they’ve played the weakest schedule in their division up to this point. However, there’s a lot to like about this team. On most nights they can outscore anyone with the way they’re hitting. What will take this team to another level is if the pitching staff can win a few games when the offense just doesn’t have it. If David Price starts to look like an ace, and Kimbrel, Uehara, and Smith start to lock down late inning situations, it could be a long season for everyone else in the AL East.

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