MLB Draft: Are teams now valuing pro readiness over potential?
The MLB Draft has changed a lot over the past couple of years. As players are now expected to make a quicker impact in the major leagues, are teams now favoring more advanced college players over the potential of high schoolers?
Taking a quick scope around the league, the type of impact that young players have on the game has certainly changed. Baseball is traditionally known for taking a different stance than many other of the prominent sports leagues in how they treat their up and coming players.
In the past, it was kind of an unwritten rule that all prospects, even top picks, needed to spend 2-3 years in the minor leagues at least before getting the call to the show. And even when the young guys got to the majors, they were expected not to be able to contribute at a high level right away, in part from some generational talents like Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. In fact, Miguel Cabrera spent three years in the Marlins minor league system before even getting promoted to their major league ball club.
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Other sports leagues like the NFL, and to a lesser extent, the NBA, expect contributions from their rookies immediately, and would rather see them fail at the highest level before they start to succeed.
But recently there has been a noticeable shift on the impact of younger players in major league baseball. Guys like Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Kris Bryant, Michael Wacha, Kyle Schwarber, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodon and Aaron Nola to name a few, play significant roles on their teams without having spent much time in the minor leagues.
What do all the players have listed above have in common? They all were drafted out of college.
Now that’s not to say that high school players can’t make an impact quickly. Premier players such as Manny Machado, Jose Fernandez, Carlos Correa and Addison Russell have flown through their respective systems. But there is not denying that it does happen much less often.
Are more teams shifting to going with the immediate production rather than upside in recent years? Looking at different drafts, the answer seems to be pointing toward yes, especially with the higher picks.
From 1999-2005, five of the six first overall picks were selected straight out of high school. From 2009-2015, there were only two high schoolers taken with the first overall selection. One of which was left hander Brady Aiken, who didn’t even sign with the Houston Astros after he was drafted.
Based on the recent success of many college ballplayers without much minor league experience, teams have been looking to go “safer” with their high picks in the draft. Look at last year’s draft for example; college bats Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman and Andrew Benintendi are tearing up the minors and already knocking on the door to be promoted to the MLB. Swanson and Bregman in particular, were taken over fellow shortstop Brendan Rodgers, even though according to MLB.com, he was the most talented player available. However, Swanson and Bregman had collegiate experience, while Rodgers was going straight from high school to pro ball. But should teams be valuing college players more?
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The past five drafts have seen many college players, specifically those taken in the first round, rise quickly to the majors and held their own as previously mentioned, but there have been successful high school players in that mix as well, they have just taken more time to grow their game.
Joe Ross and Francisco Lindor from the 2011 draft class took about three years to get consistent playing time at the major league level and are having tremendous seasons thus far. High school shortstops Carlos Correa and Corey Seager may be the best at their position by next year. Lucas Giolito, JP Crawford, Tim Anderson, Clint Frazier, Kyle Tucker and Brendan Rodgers seem to be on the right path to an make an impact as well.
If there is one disturbing trend among recent drafts, it has been the volatility of high school pitchers. Since 2011, there have been many more misses than hits when dealing with teenage hurlers. However, there are still some great ones like Jose Fernandez, and guys that could be elite in Joe Ross and Lucas Giolito.
But that’s also not to say that going with the quick production will necessarily lead to taking the best player. From Danny Hultzen and Trevor Bauer to Mike Zunino and Colin Moran, selecting college players is far from a sure thing.
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That should be the main takeaway in the league’s shift to favoring the instant impact and safeness of selecting a college player. Every player is different and while college players may be more ready to succeed right now, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will. In the short term, fans may be more satisfied to see drat picks reach the majors and contribute, but to risk losing out on a better player just to get quick production seems like a thing many teams would want to avoid.
There is also immense pressure on general managers, who may feel the need to instantly gratify their bosses with talent that is more ready to succeed at the major league level and has less of a chance to bust, even though would probably be better off simply selecting the best player available.
There have been great players that have come out of high school and college. It would be foolish of any team to not draft a player simply on the basis of where they are in their development.
Just remember, while a majority of the first overall picks from 1999-2005 were just graduating high school, that list included Josh Hamilton, Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer and Justin Upton, all of whom have developed into all stars at some point in their careers. Heck even 2004 first overall pick Matt Bush has been impressive as a 30 year-old rookie for the Rangers this season.
With the 2016 MLB Draft starting this Thursday, it will definitely be interesting to see the ratio of college and high school players in the first round given the recent quick success of many college players.
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Should teams usually skew to draft college talent in the first round? What kind of impact has this strategy had on the MLB? Share your thoughts in the comments below.