Seattle Mariners’ Felix Hernandez to be Out 4 to 6 Weeks

Originally expected to be on the DL for the 15-day minimum, Felix Hernandez is now expected to be out 4 to 6 weeks

The Seattle Mariners are having a surprisingly good season, but they could be without their ace for much longer than originally expected. Felix Hernandez last pitched on May 27, when he gave up six earned runs in six innings in a 7-2 loss to the Minnesota Twins. The injury came four days later and it was one of those quirky injuries that occasionally happen to professional athletes. During the Mariners 16-4 pounding of the San Diego Padres, Felix injured his calf when he jumped off the bench to celebrate one of his team’s five home runs. He was put on the DL, retroactive to May 28, and it was initially reported that he would miss the minimum 15 days.

A second MRI changed that estimate and now the Mariners are expected to be without King Felix for 4-6 weeks. According to ESPN’s Jim Caple, the Mariners explained that the calf wasn’t healing as quickly as they hoped. The new estimate of 4-6 weeks would have Felix back as early as the last week of June or as late as right around the All-Star break depending on how his calf progresses. June 24^th is Felix Hernandez Bobblehead Night at Safeco Field, but it’s unlikely Felix will be ready by then. In the meantime, he has been told to wear a boot as much as possible to help the healing process. Also, he needs to remain seated on the bench and maintain his cool when a teammate hits a big fly.

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Even before this injury, there were concerns about Felix this season. On the surface, his 2.86 ERA and 1.22 WHIP look fine, but a closer look shows a 4.11 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which would be the highest of his career. His strikeout rate is also down this year, continuing a trend going back to the 2014 season. That season, Felix struck out 9.5 batters per nine innings. Last year, his strikeout rate dropped to 8.5 K/9. This year, he is at 7.6 K/9, the lowest rate of his career.

Just as alarming is his walk rate, going from 1.8 BB/9 in 2014 to 2.6 BB/9 last year to 3.7 BB/9 this year, also the worst mark of his career. Finally, there have been concerns about his fastball velocity. From 2005 to 2010, Felix averaged 94 mph or higher on his fastball every season. There’s been a slow and steady decrease since then. Two years ago, his average fastball was 92.4 mph. Last year, it dropped to 91.8 mph. This year, it’s down to 90 mph. It will be interesting to see if 4-6 weeks off will add any pep to his heater.

Hernandez has been very durable during his Major League career, having started at least 30 games and pitched at least 190 innings in each of the previous 10 seasons. This is just his third stint on the DL. He spent one month on the DL with shoulder bursitis while pitching for the Tacoma Rainiers in the Pacific Coast League as a 19-year-old in 2005. Then, in 2008, Hernandez was injured in a game against the Mets when Carlos Beltran slid into his ankle on a tag play at home plate. He missed just over the minimum that year.

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Through their first 61 games of the season, the Mariners’ starting rotation has a 3.99 ERA, good for 10^th in baseball and 4^th in the American League. After Felix, Taijuan Walker has the second-best ERA (3.48), and Nate Karns (4.09) and Hisashi Iwakuma (4.10) have been better than league average. Wade Miley has been the team’s worst starter, with a 5.27 ERA in his first 12 starts.

The replacement for Hernandez in the Mariners’ starting rotation is James Paxton, who was called up from AAA to start on June 1. Paxton struggled in his first outing, giving up 10 hits and eight runs (three earned) in 3 2/3 innings against the San Diego Padres in an ugly 14-6 loss. He bounced back in his next start when he tossed six innings, allowed three runs (one earned), and struck out 10 hitters in a 3-1 loss to the Cleveland Indians.

He followed that up with another very good start, this one against the Texas Rangers. Paxton pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings, giving up six hits, two walks, and striking out seven. The Mariners led that game 1-0 when he left, but closer Steve Cishek gave up a two-out solo homer to Prince Fielder to deny Paxton his first victory of the season. They went on to lose the game in 11 innings to fall to 34-28 and 4 games behind the Rangers in the AL West.

Paxton has pitched well in three partial seasons in the big leagues with the Mariners. Coming into this year, he had a career ERA of 3.16 in 165 Major League innings. The biggest concern with Paxton is durability. He made his Major League debut with the Mariners in 2013 when he made four starts in September. The team hoped he’d be part of their 2014 rotation, but he was injured after just two starts that year and spent 115 days on the DL with a strained Latissimus dorsi muscle. He came off the DL in August and finished the season with a 3.04 ERA in 74 innings. Last year, he made 10 starts in April and May before once again going on the DL, this time with a strained left finger tendon. He missed 107 days before returning to make three starts in September.

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Paxton started this year in AAA. In 10 starts, he pitched 47 2/3 innings with a 3.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and struck out 9.4 batters per nine innings with the Tacoma Rainiers. As long as he can stay healthy, he should be a good addition to the Mariners’ rotation while Felix is out.