Blue Jays, Orioles Get Back Their All Star Shortstops

The Toronto Blue Jays are getting Troy Tulowitzki back just as the Baltimore Orioles are activating J.J. Hardy. Which of these returning All Star shortstops will make a bigger difference to their team?

The AL East race figures to remain, for the foreseeable future, more interesting and hotly contested than any other division in baseball. In no other division are three teams of the caliber of the O’s, Red Sox, and Jays all so tightly matched at the top. While the Red Sox continue to thump opposing pitching while searching for some of their own, the Jays and Orioles each retrieved key members of their lineups from the disabled list this weekend. Both clubs will be welcoming their starting shortstops back into the fold, and with both moves come a series of questions and domino effects for their respective clubs.

North of the border the Jays will soon find out if Troy Tulowitzki can reassert himself as a contributing member of their potent lineup, let alone return to his perennial MVP form. Prior to his landing on the DL with right quad strain on May 28^th, Tulowitzki had a .672 OPS, and was barely above being a replacement level player; even that solely due to his glove.

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In his absence, the lion’s share of the playing time had been delegated to former gold glover Darwin Barney, whose defensive metrics suggest he’s a tad beyond those glory days, although still certainly a serviceable option as a utility man. Barney will now head back to the bench, which means Ryan Goins can return to playing his natural position of second base on a full-time basis. The Jays would presumably be hoping, even praying that this will help Goins snap out of the prolonged funk he’s found himself in.

As for Tulowitzki’s direct impact, a deeper digging into some of his trends, per former big leaguer Dave Cameron, suggests that Tulowitkzi’s recent regression is the real deal. He’s actually more selective than ever at the plate, yet making significantly less contact, while only producing average power. In other words, his bat speed is slowing down, and at a rather alarming rate.

The good news is that he’s also been unlikely, with a nearly league leading BABIP just a few weeks prior to his injury. So, he’ll likely be better than his early numbers, but any hope of him coming to the rescue while Jose Bautista sits on the DL and Russell Martin and Goins still try to recapture their 2015 form is misplaced. Perhaps the best news for the Jays is that they somehow convinced the Rockies to take Jose Reyes off their hands. A bag of baseballs would have made that trade a steal.

As for the O’s welcoming back Hardy, the biggest question will be what to do with Manny Machado. He’s clearly demonstrated the athletic wherewithal to handle the demands of the shortstop position at the big league level (he was drafted as one after all), but the known commodity of what he can provide from third may be too much to surrender to the potential of what he can grow into at short.

Besides, Hardy is simply a better shortstop than Machado, at least at this juncture. In about half as many innings he’s produced nearly twice as much defensive value. That value is just about all Hardy provides these days as his bat seems more tightly sealed in the coffin than Tulowitzki’s. The Orioles will use Hardy given what they’re paying him, and they will use him at short.

His return is also coming at auspicious time, given that Machado will soon have to serve what remains of his post-appeal suspension in the aftermath of the fight with Yordano Ventura. Once Machado is back the O’s will have to figure out whether Ryan Flaherty or Paul Janish will be shipped out. For now, they’ll hang onto both, but after Machado’s suspension is served they’ll likely recall another pitcher and they’ll be forced into a decision on this front.

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In the final analysis Hardy’s return serves as more immediately useful to his team, while the Tulo’s will be hoping for far more overall from his return. The result of Hardy’s return is more predictable, while Tulo’s is perhaps more crucial. Neither, however, despite their track records and name recognition, will have the sort of impact that such a return would have garnered in the earlier part of this decade. Nonetheless, in a division so tightly bunched every development is important, and any one could later prove to produce a significant butterfly effect.