St. Louis Cardinals: Patience running out with Trevor Rosenthal as closer

No one saved more games than Trevor Rosenthal over the last two seasons, but the St. Louis Cardinals closer might have run out of goodwill with manager Mike Matheny.

Considering they share a division with the team generally acknowledged as World Series favorites, the St. Louis Cardinals have done a solid job staying competitive in 2016. They hold a 38-34 record at the moment; though that puts them 10 games behind the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs, they are currently just a single game behind the New York Mets for the second Wild Card spot.

The Cards would be in an even better position had they been getting more reliable performances out of their closer. Trevor Rosenthal has been the club’s ninth-inning man for the past three seasons, and for the first two he was easily one of the top closers in the game. Between 2014 and 2015, the right-hander notched 93 saves with a 2.65 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 11.0 K/9 rate. No other relief pitcher saved more games over that span.

The 2016 campaign has been a very different story for the 26-year-old flamethrower, however. More specifically, the month of June. Through May, Rosenthal looked like his usual self, boasting a 2.12 ERA in 17 innings while securing eight saves in nine opportunities. Since then, he has been an absolute disaster at the back-end of the St. Louis bullpen.

Rosenthal has tossed seven innings in June, allowing 11 earned runs (14.14 ERA) on 13 hits and eight walks. He has been saddled with two blown saves and two losses during the month. The breaking point for fans’ frustrations may have come Friday night against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. Rosenthal was called upon in the ninth to protect a 3-1 lead. Kyle Seager led off the frame with a double, then Dae-ho Lee walked to put runners on first and second. Adam Lind proceeded to hit a three-run homer to give the M’s a 4-3 victory.

It was the fourth time this season – and third time this month – that Rosenthal was unable to record an out.

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Cardinals manager Mike Matheny has expressed confidence in Rosenthal throughout his recent troubles, and it’s hard to blame him considering his track record. But last night after the game the skipper seemed far less committed when discussing his closer.

When asked if he planned to stick with Rosenthal in his current role, Matheny simply answered, “Yeah, I don’t know. I don’t know the answer right now.”

Rosenthal is still throwing as hard as ever, with a fastball averaging 97 mph and known to hit triple digits on the radar gun. He still strikes out batters at a rapid clip: his 13.5 K/9 is on track to be a career high. Where Rosenthal has really struggled this year is with walks.

He’s never been known for his control, but Rosenthal sports an ugly 7.9 BB/9 at the moment. That’s nearly twice his lifetime average (4.0 BB/9). He did manage to work around a 5.4 BB/9 in 2014, but that’s a lot easier said than done. Home runs have also been a problem. After Lind’s walk-off blast, Rosenthal has already served up three long balls. The most he’s ever given up in a season is four.

A couple of Rosenthal’s issues might work themselves out with time. Opposing hitters’ .439 BABIP (.522 in June) will be difficult to sustain. His 21.4 percent HR/FB (home run to fly ball) ratio should also be due for some regression to the mean. That said, it’s worth noting that Rosenthal has been generating ground balls more than ever. His ground ball rate is up to 56.7 percent, while his fly ball rate sits at a career low 23.3 percent. So while he’s allowing fewer balls in the air, when he does they’re being hit hard and often leave the park.

While the Cardinals certainly shouldn’t give up on Rosenthal as closer long-term, it might be a good idea to make a change for the time being, especially if they want to keep up with the pace in the NL postseason hunt. Fortunately, they have a couple appealing options to assume ninth-inning duties.

Korean import Seung-hwan Oh has been brilliant in his first MLB season. He has a sparkling 1.66 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 12.1 K/9 over 38 innings of work as a setup man. One would think the Cards would be very much tempted to hand him the reins based on his performance thus far. Closing games would also make his incredibly awesome nickname – “The Final Boss” – all the more appropriate.

26-year-old lefty Kevin Siegrist has also done a fine job, posting a 2.79 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 in 29 frames. He was a real workhorse for St. Louis last year, appearing in an MLB-high 81 games.

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In a crowded National League field, the Cards can’t really afford to lose much ground, and that could mean removing Rosenthal from the role he’s inhabited for the past two-plus seasons, at least until he figures himself out.