Should The Chicago Cubs Be Worried About Addison Russell?

Ever since he arrived in July 2014, Addison Russell has been hyped as the shortstop of the future for the Chicago Cubs. The 2016 season has been a trying one for the young shortstop, so should the Cubs be concerned?

Addison Russell arrived by way of a blockbuster trade from the Oakland Athletics in the summer of 2014 when the Cubs traded away Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel. Prior to the season, he had been named the number 14 prospect in the game by Baseball America. When he arrived in Chicago, he gave the Cubs a second top-15 shortstop prospect, joining number 5 prospect Javier Baez.

After Baez disappointed in his first MLB stop in late 2014, people began to look at Russell as the shortstop of the future in Chicago. Entering the 2015 season, he was named the number 3 prospect in baseball by Baseball America, only behind current teammate and reigning NL Rookie of the Year Kris Bryant and Minnesota outfielder Byron Buxton. Cubs fans anticipated his arrival on the North Side as he continued to hit well in AAA. Remember, this Cubs team trotted out Tommy La Stella at second base on Opening Day.

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After being called up in April, Russell hit an unimpressive .242./.307/.389 in 523 plate appearances, but the season wasn’t without positives. Splitting time between second base and shortstop, he posted 2.6 defensive WAR in 142 games, good enough for fifth in the NL. Also, he was only 21 years old at the season’s close, making him one of the youngest players in the majors.

After taking the starting job from Starlin Castro late last season, Russell entered 2016 entrenched as the everyday shortstop for the Cubs. Everyone was hopeful for a big step forward this year, and it has been in some ways, but there are some things that could keep him from being the shortstop of the future in Chicago.

So far in 2016, Russell is hitting .236/.327/.378. There are a few things to mention here. His average has taken a slight dip from his rookie year, but his plate discipline has improved markedly. After accumulating only 42 walks in 2015, he has 31 already this season in less than half the plate appearances. The improvement in OBP is encouraging, but his mark is still only 14th among shortstops. After hitting 13 home runs last season, he is on pace for about the same this year, but his isolated power has dropped from .147 to .142. Even with his above-average defense, Russell ranks only 12th among shortstops in WAR at 1.5 in between Elvis Andrus and Jose Iglesias. Not exactly elite company.

When you look deeper at his stats, you begin to notice some troubling things. In 65 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, Russell has a horrendous triple-slash of .123/.278/.231. Yes, you read that right. A .231 slugging percentage. How he managed to get his slugging percentage 47 points lower than his OBP, the world may never know. Out of the 27 shortstops with 50 or more plate appearances against southpaws, Russell’s batting average is dead last by over 40 points. His OPS of .509 ranks 24th in that same group. Only Trevor Story and Jonathan Villar have more strikeouts than his 24 against lefties. The point is, Russell is almost unplayable this year against lefties. That’s not a promising sign for your shortstop of the future.

Now, the Cubs do happen to have a solution for this season; start Javier Baez when they face lefties. In 45 plate appearances against them this season, Baez has hit .356/.431/.578 with an OPS of 1.009, nearly double Russell’s. He seems to be the perfect platoon partner for Russell right now, but isn’t it a problem if your shortstop of the future needs a platoon partner?

The answer for now is yes. Russell should absolutely not play against left-handed pitching. If he doesn’t turn it around this year, how do you feel about benching your shortstop of the future in a playoff game against Madison Bumgarner? Or Clayton Kershaw? That’s a problem the Cubs may run into in October. Now, Javier Baez is a fine player, but would you want him potentially starting at shortstop in Game 7 of the World Series?

Even with all the things I’ve mentioned thus far, Russell hasn’t been a total disppointment for Chicago this season. His line of .276/.347/.431 against righties is completely respectable at his position, and as mentioned before, his defense has been a plus. His defensive WAR of 0.9 this season ranks fourth among shortstops, only behind Brandon Crawford, Francisco Lindor, and Zack Cozart.

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The Cubs should definitely be keeping an eye on Russell, but it seems premature to start worrying about him. If the struggles against lefties continue, Chicago could have a dilemma on their hands come October.

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