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MLB: Five Hitters Likely to Hit Worse in the Second Half

By Bobby Mueller

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There are currently 20 players with an OPS at least .100 higher than their rest-of-season projection. I think these five are the most likely to hit worse in the second half.

As exciting as it is when a player on your favorite team gets off to an incredibly good start, it’s always sensible to temper expectations. Many players have great first halves only to return to their expected level of performance in the second half. This is the nature of the beast. Players at the top of the leaderboards in the first half tend to do worse in the second half. Players at the bottom tend to do better (unless they are so bad that they lose playing time). Regression is a powerful force.

I used statistics from last year to look specifically at in-season regression to the mean. At roughly the one-quarter point of the 2015 season (May 25th), I divided hitters into three groups based on how far above their preseason projection they were in OPS. The three groups were labeled the Hot Starters, the Predictables, and the Cold Starters.

The Hot Starters group had a preseason OPS projection of .727. Through May 25th, this group of hitters had a combined .864 OPS, which was +.137 higher than expected.

The Predictables group had a preseason OPS projection of .730. Through May 25th, this group had a combined .736 OPS, which was +.006 higher than expected.

The Cold Starters were projected for a .751 OPS and had a .638 OPS through May 25th, which was -.113 worse than expected.

I then found the rest-of-season projections for each of these groups. With the additional information, the Hot Starters projected OPS went from .727 in the preseason to .741 for the rest-of-the season. The Predictables didn’t see much change, going from a .730 preseason projection to a .729 rest-of-season projection. The Cold Starters saw their projection drop from .751 in the preseason to .740 for the rest-of-season.

The final step was to look at how each of these groups did after May 25th. All three groups hit better than projected. This is due to the increase in offense that MLB experienced in the second half last year. The Hot Starters group did hit better than the other two groups. They were projected for a .741 OPS over the rest of the season and actually had an OPS of .767 (+.026). The Predictables were projected for a .729 OPS and actually had an OPS of .746 (+.017). The Cold Starters were projected for a .740 OPS and actually had an OPS of .754 (+.014).

There was a slight trend that players off to a hot start were able to outperform their updated projections by more than the players who started slowly or the players who hit about as expected, but the effect was small when you consider that all groups hit better over the remainder of the season. The difference between the Hot Starters and Cold Starters was .012 of OPS.

As for the individual players, I found that 82% of the Hot Starters hit worse after the one-quarter point of the season. The Predictables group was close to 50-50, with 48% improving and 52% doing worse. The Cold Starters saw 78% improve and 22% get worse. The general trend shows that hot starters cool down and cold starters heat up.

With all of this in mind, here are the 20 hitters with the biggest difference between their current OPS and their projected OPS for the rest of the season (from the Fangraphs Depth Charts). These are the guys who are the most likely candidates to hit worse in the second half.

Current OPS, Projected OPS, (Difference)—Player

  1. .983 OPS, .800 OPS, (-.183)—Jake Lamb
  2. 108 OPS, .935 OPS (-.173)—David Ortiz
  3. .985 OPS, .823 OPS (-.162)—Daniel Murphy
  4. .918 OPS, .757 OPS (-.161)—Wilson Ramos
  5. .916 OPS, .758 OPS (-.158)—Aledmys Diaz
  6. .988 OPS, .845 OPS (-.143)—Matt Carpenter
  7. .926 OPS, .788 OPS (-.138)—Jackie Bradley, Jr.
  8. .899 OPS, .764 OPS (-.135)—Ian Desmond
  9. .955 OPS, .825 OPS (-.130)—Jose Altuve
  10. .955 OPS, .825 OPS (-.130)—Yoenis Cespedes
  11. .888 OPS, .762 OPS (-.126)—DJ LeMahieu
  12. .923 OPS, .804 OPS (-.119)—Michael Saunders
  13. 016 OPS, .902 OPS (-.114)—Josh Donaldson
  14. .862 OPS, .750 OPS (-.112)—Gregory Polanco
  15. .910 OPS, .798 OPS (-.112)—Brendan Moss
  16. .881 OPS, .772 OPS (-.109)—Dexter Fowler
  17. .893 OPS, .787 OPS (-.106)—Marcell Ozuna
  18. .888 OPS, .787 OPS (-.101)—Carlos Beltran
  19. .874 OPS, .773 OPS (-.101)—Trevor Story
  20. .806 OPS, .706 OPS (-.100)—Jonathan Villar

History tells us that most of these guys will hit worse from this point forward. That’s not a knock on them, it’s just the way things work. Some will hit worse but still be very good hitters. Some will hit worse and fall to below-average hitters. That being said, I think some are more likely to fall than others. For example, Daniel Murphy has a hard hit percentage of 38.2% this year compared to a career mark of 29%. He had a terrific second half last year, an amazing run in the playoffs, and has continued to rake in 2016. I still don’t think he’ll keep up a .985 OPS, but I believe he has a better chance to outhit his rest-of-season projection than most players on this list. Other players on this list who have a hard hit percentage this year that is much higher than during their careers include Matt Carpenter, Jose Altuve, Yoenis Cespedes, DJ LeMahieu, Michael Saunders, and Josh Donaldson. I’m still high on all of these guys.

Other players, I’m not so high on, so we’ll take a closer look at the five players from this list of 20 who I think are most likely to hit worse from this point forward.

Next: The Cardinals surprising shortstop

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