Chicago Cubs: Will Joe Nathan Still Contribute?

After big acquisitions for the bullpen in July, is the acquisition of Joe Nathan by the Chicago Cubs going under the radar?

The Cubs designated Joe Nathan for assignment on Friday when they activated Jorge Soler off the DL, and it has seemingly gone under the radar. Nathan had been signed by the Cubs back in May, and he had made three appearances for the Cubs after working his way up from the minors, not allowing a single run over 2 innings of work, striking out 4.

His Background

Nathan was drafted as a shortstop out of Stony Brook in New York, but after one season, he went to the mound, and found a home quickly. While his fastball and slider were good enough to get him to the majors, his change up was so far behind that he got shelled as a starter, predicating a move to the bullpen in 2003 to make the big league club in San Francisco.

Nathan was traded to Minnesota in the A.J. Pierzynski trade that also brought Minnesota Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser. The Twins immediately inserted Nathan into the closer’s role, and he saved 44 games in 2004 and was an All-Star. Before leaving as a free agent after 2011, Nathan became the Twins all-time saves leader. He had two excellent All-Star seasons with the Rangers before signing a deal with the Detroit Tigers, but that did not go as well by any means.

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What Does He Have Left?
Nathan has been a fastball/slider guy primarily in his career, mixing in an effective change up, but never really using the pitch heavily. Over the entirety of his career, Nathan has thrown roughly 60% fastballs, 25% sliders, 10% change ups, and 5% other (we’ll get to that). At his best, Nathan threw in 93-95 MPH average range with his fastball, maxing out at 98. While many remember his rough 2014 season before his injury and subsequently missing all of 2015, his average velocity had been trending downward for multiple years before that, and he had one of his best seasons in 2013 when he had an average fastball of 92.3 MPH (a full 3 MPH lower than 2007). The big difference for Nathan was not seen in his velocity, but in the lack of movement in his now-slower pitches.

Nathan’s return this year has actually shown him to be using another pitch very well – his sinking fastball. A pitch that he didn’t use much previously and one that didn’t generate a ton of break, Nathan now gets three times the break as he did in any season previous to 2016, and his velocity hasn’t changed on that pitch while his four-seam fastball has lost the ticks of velocity mentioned earlier. This has allowed him a new lease on life and possibly one more chance at chasing an elusive World Series championship as a member of a loaded Cubs bullpen before his DFA.

Certainly his performance will warrant interest if he chooses to seek free agency, but he also may choose to stay with the Cubs organization as they were the ones that did give him a chance.

Last, but not least, I wanted to present a case that Nathan is the second-best reliever of the 2000-2009 decade.

The easy case is this – Via Fangraphs’ WAR, from 2000-2009, Joe Nathan was second only to Mariano Rivera by a tally of 23.8 to 15.4. Of course, to emphasize Rivera’s level of dominance in his time, the difference between he and Nathan is equal the difference between Nathan and the #26 reliever of the 2000s, Takashi Saito. Utilizing Baseball-Reference’s WAR, Nathan is second to Rivera, 33-20. Even more astounding, the difference in bWAR between Nathan and Rivera is the same as the difference between Nathan and the #56/57 relievers, Danys Baez and Carlos Marmol.

Now to the straight stats for those who aren’t fans of WAR – we’ll start with ERA, qualified guys of course. Nathan is 5th in the decade in ERA with a 2.12 ERA, ranking behind Jonathan Papelbon, Saito, Rivera, and Joakim Soria. Looking at saves, Nathan’s 6th in the decade with 246, behind Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner, Jason Isringhausen, and Francisco Cordero. Nathan was also dominant, striking out batters at a 10.74 K/9 rate while walking only 2.82 BB/9.

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Heck, even over his career, you find the same thing. Nathan ranks 2nd in fWAR and bWAR from 2002-2014 (the time he hit the majors in the bullpen to his blow up season in Detroit). He was also 2nd in saves to Rivera over that time. Really, let’s hope this DFA isn’t the end of what could be a Hall of Fame career!