Colorado Rockies Nolan Arenado Developing Quite the Trend
By Jason Burke
Colorado Rockies All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado has improved in every important statistical category imaginable over the past three years, but there is one that continues to elude him.
Before Friday’s game with the Phillies, and before Baseball Reference had updated their statistics from said game, one number stood out in each of the past three years on Arenado’s page: 287. That 287 is what he had hit in 2014, last year, and entering play on Friday. After an 0-for-4 performance that earned him an RBI, his average now sits at woefully below average .284.
While he has been unable to improve upon his batting average over the past two seasons, and doesn’t look to be on pace to beat it by much, if at all this season, he has made some significant strides in 2016. After driving in 130 runs last season during his 42 home run campaign, Arenado is sitting on 93 and 30 with 46 games to go.
If he collects four at-bats per game and plays in all 46, he is on pace to hit 42 home runs again this season with an at-bats per home run rate of 14.7. RBI are a little more fickle as he can’t put guys on base for himself to drive in. Even so, he’d need just under one per game to match last year’s 130.
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Other than those two power stats, Arenado has continued to improve across the board. His OBP is up from .323 last season to .357 this year, while both his walk and strikeout rates are trending in the right direction. The Colorado Rockies third baseman has doubled his walk rate from last season, now sitting at 10.3 percent, while his strikeout rate is now down a couple of points to 13.2 percent. As things stand right now, Arenado also has a higher wRC+ than he did a year ago at 126, compared to last season’s 119.
After tying with Adrian Beltre in DRS (defensive runs saved) at their position last season with 18 apiece, Arenado is once again atop the leaderboard with 14 runs saved this year, leading Beltre by two.
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It’s hard to say that Arenado needs to be better, but even a slight increase in his production, coupled with consistency up and down the rest of the lineup, could be enough for the Colorado Rockies to really make a postseason push. As things currently stand, Colorado trails Miami by 4.5 games for the second wild card spot, with the Mets, Pirates and Cardinals in between.