Cleveland Indians and Their Bullpenning Ways

When the Cleveland Indians ponied up to acquire Andrew Miller from the New York Yankees at the trade deadline, it was a move that added some legitimacy to their quest for a World Series championship. The way they have used Miller could be what helps them realize that feat.

Yesterday I talked a little bit about “bullpenning” as it relates to Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Today we delve into a topic that has been covered on an almost daily basis since the deadline on MLB Now.

There is no denying that Miller is one of the more valuable arms–not just among relievers, either–in baseball. According to Win Probability Added (WPA), Miller is the third most valuable pitcher in terms of increasing his team’s chances to win. Baltimore closer Zach Britton (also a lefty) tops the list at 4.52 with Kershaw (another lefty) coming in second at 3.72, followed by Miller’s 3.28.

Since joining Cleveland, Miller has posted a 2.20 ERA while allowing just three hits over 8.2 innings. That’s not the intriguing part, however. Instead, with a solid reliever in Cody Allen already with the club, Miller has been used to make sure a lead gets to Allen late in games.

Only one time has Miller come in in the ninth inning since the trade, while four of his six appearances have been in the seventh. Two of those seventh inning appearances Miller has pitched two innings. In essence, Miller is a man without a traditional role in the bullpen. Instead, Terry Francona has defined his role as the guy that gets outs when the team needs them, and to his credit Miller has been completely on board with this plan.

Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but let’s say that Cleveland makes the playoffs. Typically the format accounts for two to three games on consecutive days, then a day off. With the second-best starting rotation (3.93 ERA) in the American League behind the Blue Jays (3.67), the Indians have the ability to let their starters go deep into games. Yet with Miller being a roaming reliever, Dan Otero holding a ground ball rate of 56.2 and a 1.52 ERA, and Allen’s 11.52 strikeouts per nine rate, Cleveland boasts some of the best pitching in the game.

You can add Bryan Shaw to that list of relievers that can be counted on as he holds a ground ball rate of 53.1 percent, a strikeout rate of 9.36 per nine and an ERA of 3.60. Either Josh Tomlin or Trevor Bauer will likely be moved to the bullpen during the postseason (again, nothing is guaranteed, just talking theoretically), and as of right now that person would probably be Bauer based solely on his walks per nine rate of 3.63, which is two and a half more walks per nine than Tomlin. Tomlin holds the higher ERA by a slight margin (4.14 to 3.97), but the ability to keep yourself out of trouble in the playoffs and being able to save the bullpen for their best spots likely reigns supreme.

Next: A Sabermetric Road to Recovery for Kershaw?

With Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar (assuming he’s healthy) leading the charge in the rotation, the Cleveland Indians are stacked when it comes to pitching and rank second in runs scored (593) in the American League to Boston, who leads all of baseball with 648. The only team in the hunt that comes close to them defensively is Toronto, so if these two match up in the playoffs, we would be in store for a very even matchup. The difference could be Cleveland’s flexibility when it comes to bullpen roles in order to get key outs, and that is why the acquisition of Andrew Miller could be the biggest deadline deal when we look back at 2016.