St. Louis Cardinals Will Survive Matt Holliday Injury

Matt Holliday’s season may be in jeopardy, but there is no reason to believe that this is the end of the St. Louis Cardinals.

News broke last night that Matt Holliday of the St. Louis Cardinals has decided to undergo surgery to repair his broken right thumb. The operation, scheduled for today, has made it more unlikely that the outfielder will return this season. Mark Saxon of ESPN has reported that manager Mike Matheny has said that having surgery would be the only course to a potential return before the season’s end. Still, this is far from certain.

The news is yet another setback for a team that injuries have absolutely decimated. First baseman Matt Adams, shortstop Aledmys Diaz, and starting pitcher Michael Wacha have all landed on the disabled list in recent weeks. Other notables such as Trevor Rosenthal, Lance Lynn, and Jordan Walden are also sidelined.

This season has seen Matt Holliday regress, but he has still been a force in the St. Louis Cardinals’ lineup. In 107 games, the 36-year-old has seen his batting average and on-base percentage dip to .242 and .318, respectively, but he has compensated for this with a late-career surge in power. With 19 home runs and 20 doubles on the season, Holliday is putting forth his best power output since 2011.

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Although his offense has dropped from great to good, his defense has remained at roughly the same point as in the past. Neither Ultimate Zone Rating nor Defensive Runs Saved is a fan of Holliday’s work this year, and they have never regarded him as a great defender. Additionally, he has been a nonfactor on the base paths for quite some time now. In fact, he has yet to attempt a steal this year, and he only tried thrice last year.

Losing Holliday is surely a hit to the Cardinals, and even a diminished Holliday is an asset to a contending team. This said, the Cardinals will survive in his indefinite absence. Brandon Moss and Tommy Pham will likely pick up some extra work. Neither player brings great defense to the outfield, but they compensate for this with their batting.

Brandon Moss has been one of the better power hitters in the National League this year. He has slugged an impressive 21 home runs in 308 plate appearances, and his batting average of .261 is nothing at which to sneeze. His defense may not be great, but it is certainly not a problem either.

As for Tommy Pham, the 28-year-old has seen relatively little action in the major leagues but has been good across that time. He only has 315 career plate appearances but owns a solid 124 wRC+. Furthermore, he also brings a decent bit of pop to the table. Even with a bit of regression, he is likely to be a league-average bat or better down the stretch.

Perhaps just as important as the players who will be replacing Holliday, the Cardinals are still very much in a good position in the standings. With the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers more or less tied for first place, the Cardinals hold the second wild card spot. The Pittsburgh Pirates, Miami Marlins, and New York Mets may all be within striking distance, but they all seem to have slightly less firepower. Of the four teams, the Cardinals have the best offense, and their pitching has been good enough to keep them in games. Sure enough, the Redbirds lay claim to the best run differential of all of those teams by a sizable margin.

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At the end of the day, the St. Louis Cardinals will make it through the Matt Holliday injury. It may not be ideal – and it certainly reduces their depth down the stretch – but it is a manageable problem nevertheless. Tommy Pham and Brandon Moss are more than adequate as replacements, and they will certainly be able to survive.

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