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Detroit Tigers: What Will Jordan Zimmermann’s Return Mean?

By Greg Goldstein

Jun 30, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) looks on in the dugout during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 30, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) looks on in the dugout during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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With an outstanding offense and a few surprise performances from pitchers like Michael Fulmer and Justin Verlander, the Detroit Tigers are in the hunt for a postseason spot. What impact would adding Jordan Zimmermann to the starting rotation do to the team’s playoff chances?

A few weeks prior to the trade deadline, the Detroit Tigers were on the outskirts of the playoff chase. Jordan Zimmermann and J.D. Martinez were out with injuries and the team’s bullpen was still much too volatile. Fast forward to now, after a 10-1 stretch toward the end of July and early August, and the Tigers are three games out of the second Wild Card spot.

Detroit is led by an explosive offense that is even better with J.D. Martinez now back in the middle of the lineup. They also have had surprise seasons from rookie Michael Fulmer and a rejuvenated Justin Verlander. However, outside of these two pitchers, there is not much that manager Brad Ausmus can rely on. Anibal Sanchez is more miss than hit, Matt Boyd has been better of late but still isn’t a reliable number-three in a rotation and Daniel Norris seems to still need some time at the minor league level.

If only the club had  qualified starting pitcher that could join the Tigers for the stretch run? Oh wait… they do. Free agent signee Jordan Zimmermann is currently on the disabled list, but may be almost ready to return to the Tigers rotation.

According to MLB.com, the 30-year-old right-hander is on track for a September 10 return. Zimmermann is scheduled for a side session today and the club is “hoping to get Zimmermann three rehab starts with Triple-A Toledo before moving him back into the Major League rotation.”

(Quoted from Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com)

This is the second time that he has been off the field with an injury this season. Zimmermann had originally gone on an elongated stay on the disabled list with tightness in his throwing arm. He had since returned in early August, but he immediately went back after he aggravated his right arm again.

Zimmermann was spectacular to start the season as he seemed to have officially taken Verlander’s spot at the top of the rotation. In fact, he didn’t allow any more than one earned run in his first five starts. But as the year wore on, you could see that something wasn’t right with the former Washington National. Eventually, he was diagnosed with an injury to his right lat, which would explain his steep decline in production.

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Now, with Zimmermann on track to return and the Tigers within striking distance of October baseball, what will his return mean to the team’s playoff hopes?

While he is certainly an upgrade over what the Tigers have now, Zimmermann shouldn’t be relied upon to be the pitcher that he was at the beginning of the season, even if he is fully healthy. Zimmermann hasn’t pitched consistently since June and needs some time to build his stuff back up. He probably would have a much bigger impact if he stayed in the rotation through August and didn’t return to the disabled list.

Also, even with his proven track record of success in the major leagues, Zimmermann has just not been a good pitcher after starting the season on an incredible note. As of now, his ERA is at 4.44 and his strikeout rate per nine innings is almost down by two whole points since 2015. His FIP of 3.93 shows that he could be a bit of a victim of poor luck, but his current numbers are really not indicative of how poorly he pitched leading up to his DL stint.

Over his past nine starts, Zimmermann has an ERA of 7.66 and has gone six or more innings only four times. His velocity has also ticked down from 93 mph in 2015, which was about his career average, to only about 91 mph this year, according to FanGraphs. This could have everything to do with his arm injury, but it should still be concerning nonetheless.

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This is not to make it seem like everything is doom and gloom for the former All-Star. Zimmermann still has very good control of the strike zone, averaging only 1.8 walks per nine innings, and his hard contact percentage has also decreased from his solid campaign last year.

Adding a proven veteran pitcher to what the Tigers already have is never a bad thing, but Detroit fans should not expect that Zimmermann will be the difference to whether the club makes a serious run for the postseason come late September. It is encouraging that their expensive free agent signing looks to be ready to contribute, but there would obviously be much more excitement if Zimmermann had been pitching to his career averages before he was sidelined.

There is no doubt that his injury was a key component to his disappointing performance prior to his stay on the disabled list. But even with this being the case, Zimmermann will only have four or five starts, if healthy, to make an impact on the Tigers’ late season run. With the amount of arm problems he’s had this season, it is unreasonable to think that he will be anything more than a league average pitcher when he returns. This would still be a boost to the club’s pitching staff, but it probably won’t make or break any postseason push in Detroit.

Next: Phillies rotation will soon be supplemented

What impact do you think Zimmermann will have on the Tigers’ playoff chances? Let us know in the comment section below.

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