Toronto Blue Jays: Jose Bautista’s Return Bolsters AL East Chances
By Ron Juckett
With their leader Jose Bautista back in the fold, the Toronto Blue Jays are in a strong position in the American League East.
The Toronto Blue Jays got back a critical part of their team this week when right fielder Jose Bautista returned from his recent knee injury.
This has not been a banner year for the six-time All-Star. A swollen toe, after running into the outfield wall against the Philadelphia Phillies, cost him a month on the disabled list. Landing awkwardly on his left knee attempting to throw out Tampa Bay Ray Kevin Kiermaier earned him the recent trip.
On the surface, 2016 will not go down as a great season for the self-assured Bautista. On track to miss a quarter of the year, his slash line of .226/.351/449 is well off his norms.
As they continue to battle the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles for the American East crown, his return could not have come at a better time. Bautista still has 15 homers on his ledger. He still walks regularly, 59 times this year, and has 50 RBI. If you project that out, it is a 30-homer, 100-RBI and 120-walk year. Numbers within 2015’s production.
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Adding Bautista in the lineup makes the Blue Jays even more dangerous than before. With a playoff race fueled by high octane offenses and mediocre pitching, whatever he can produce helps towards a return to the playoffs. Toronto holds the league’s best ERA at 3.79. Allowing a stingy 4.10 runs per game, if they can avoid the one-game Wild Card round and get straight in to the AL Divisional Series, the Jays will be in decent shape to return to the AL Championship Series and beyond.
Since his brief return, manager John Gibbons returned Bautista to the leadoff spot. His ability to draw walks and start rallies is crucial. Hitting out of the top spot this year, he is slashing .240/.345/.471. Not good numbers, but it gives Toronto’s opposition something to think about right from the start.
Ideally, he is better batting third. His on-base percentage jumps to .376 and the OPS from .816 to .844. Using him at the top, however, means more plate appearances. As pitchers tire this time of year, it is a decent gamble if Bautista can face a pitcher a fourth time in a game or cause a team to go to the bullpen early.
If he finally is at full strength, something Bautista has not been in ten weeks, having one of baseball’s most feared hitters healthy gives Toronto an advantage over the last five weeks. Here, ignore the overall numbers as they mean little now. Can his swing and ability to draw walks win a game or two?
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Not in WAR, but actual games. With the division so tight, his sense to not swing at a close pitch may be the difference in how Toronto finishes.