The Tampa Bay Rays have ample talent in the minor leagues, but will it be enough to help them compete in the American League East?
With AL East foes in the Bronx and Boston sitting on loaded farm systems, the Tampa Bay Rays will need to switch their driving force from optimism to urgency. The Rays, through savvy trades and some quality draft picks, have lots of talent in the minor leagues. But their rivals can match the buzz.
Five top-100 prospects (four depending on who you ask) arrived in the New York Yankees’ farm system at the trade deadline while the Boston Red Sox have four prospects in Baseball Prospectus’ top 100, including three in the top 50. With that much talent coming up the pipeline into teams that already have plenty of money to throw around, the Rays are facing longer odds than even their meager budgets place on them.
When small market teams such as the Rays punt the present to land high-end prospects and build for the future, they become the Kansas City Royals of the past three seasons. When big market teams adopt the same approach, they become the Chicago Cubs. Or the New York Yankees of the future.
That doesn’t mean small market teams are doomed. The Rays made four playoff appearances from 2008 to 2013 and those teams were led by homegrown talents such as Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, James Shields and David Price. But the team hasn’t made the playoffs – or had a winning season – since 2013 when it lost to the Boston Red Sox in the AL Division Series.
There’s a nice mix of talent in the farm system. Pitchers Chih-Wei Hu, Jacob Faria and Brent Honeywell all have promising futures ahead of them. Hu tossed eight scoreless innings Tuesday to lower his earned run average to 2.59 and his fielding independent pitching to 3.27, which are first and tied for fourth, respectively, in the Southern League. Faria was having dreadful luck at the beginning of the season but had a 2.52 ERA from July 25 to August 23, a span of six starts.
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Honeywell is going to be the best of the group. He was drafted in 2014, shined last season and has been filthy in 2016. Entering yesterday’s start he had a 2.14 ERA, 2.83 FIP and 4.87 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 19 starts between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. His 5.82 K/BB in the Florida State League is tied for fourth among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched. He tossed six innings and allowed four runs last night.
The position players are just as promising. Shortstop Willy Adames and outfielder Jake Bauers were second and third in the Southern League in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) at 137 and 133, respectively, entering play Wednesday. Adames has cut his strikeout rate more than six points and is slugging more than 50 points higher than last season – including 11 home runs to just four last season. Bauers played 69 games at Double-A last season, and in his second crack at the SL his walk rate is up more than four points and his on-base percentage is up more than 40.
In Triple-A Durham, first baseman Casey Gillaspie was slashing .283/.377/.461 for a 144 wRC+ entering Wednesday. Gillaspie has mashed all through the minors, so he’ll definitely find a place to contribute. Shortstop Daniel Robertson has been steady offensively but will provide more value with his glove.
Elsewhere in the minors, the Rays have shortstop Adrian Rondon (2014 international signing); outfielders Garrett Whitely (2015 first round draft pick), Ryan Boldt (2016 draft, second round) and Justin Williams (Jeremy Hellickson trade); and third baseman Joshua Lowe (2016 draft) as the next wave of young talent.
How does this group stack up to the Yankees and Red Sox? In the immediate future, the Yankees and Red Sox are going to be better off. It’s tough to compete with what recent Yankee graduates Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge are doing and the Red Sox have gems in Andrew Benintendi, Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers.
Over the long term, the Rays farm system will put up a fight, even if the checkbook won’t. The Yankees and Red Sox clearly have more talent among the position players, but the Rays, per usual, are loaded with arms. Blake Snell is a future front-line starter and Honeywell is a future No. 3. Faria and Hu should slide in somewhere as well.
Rosters expand today, so during the season’s final month Rays fans might get a more detailed look at the future. Gillaspie and Robertson are two good candidates to see some big-league time, and so are outfielder Mikie Mahtook and third baseman Richie Shaffer.