Boston Red Sox: Eduardo Rodriguez Showing Promise

The Boston Red Sox were expecting a lot from Eduardo Rodriguez at the start of 2016, but injuries and early season struggles have dampened those expectations. After yesterday’s eight inning, one hit performance, Rodriguez may be showing glimpses of what’s to come.

When the Boston Red Sox acquired Rodriguez from the Baltimore Orioles for reliever Andrew Miller at the trade deadline back in 2014, he was a Double-A pitcher with a 4.79 ERA (3.52 FIP) on the year. In six post-deadline starts with Portland (Sox Double-A), Rodriguez saw his strikeouts per nine rise from 7.51 to 9.40 and his walk rate decrease from 3.16 to 1.93, albeit in fewer innings. He also posted a 0.96 ERA over his 37.1 innings with Portland.

Having established himself in the Red Sox system, Rodriguez started out the following season in Triple-A Pawtucket, again lowering his walk rate, and posting a sub-3.00 ERA over eight starts. He spent the rest of the regular season in Boston’s starting rotation, accumulating a 3.85 ERA (3.92 FIP) and a 2.5 WAR.

After a delayed 2016 debut on May 31, the 23-year-old pitched six solid innings on the road in Baltimore, allow just two earned while striking out three. As the calendar flipped to June, the wheels seemingly came off and questions arose. Over the course of the month, E-Rod finished with a 10.03 ERA which was inflated by his final outing of June in Tampa in which he went just 2 2/3 innings and gave up nine earned runs.

If you take out the month of June, the lefty has pitched a total of 58 2/3 innings and held a 2.78 ERA, which is pretty darn good. Of course taking out a pitcher’s worst group of starts skews the data a bit, so if we just take out that rough outing against the Rays, we’re left with a 3.98 ERA. The average American League ERA right now is 4.24.

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At the very least Rodriguez has shown that he can be an above league average pitcher. Then, he goes out and has a game like he did yesterday in Oakland where he pitches eight scoreless and allows just one hit, which was so close at first base that it had to be reviewed to be ruled a single.

The main focus moving forward for the Sox southpaw should be consistency. Sunday’s outing has been his best by far this season, even though he has had scoreless outings in the past. The biggest difference was that he was able to go deeper into the ballgame, which hasn’t always been the case this season. This is partly due to an increased walk rate, which is hovering at 3.29 per nine in his 82 innings at the big league level.

The second area of focus should be keeping the ball in the park. This hasn’t been an issue for him in the past, as his HR/9 rate has always been well below one (save for his four innings of Lo-A ball in 2011 when it was 2.25), and this could just be due to his knee injury this spring. Right now that rate is 1.54.

Over his last four starts (NYY, @BAL, KC, @OAK) his ERA sits at a crisp 2.24 (six earned, 24 1/3 innings). With David Price coming into form since the All-Star break, Rick Porcello having a dominant year, and Drew Pomeranz rebounding nicely after a rough first few outings, the Sox rotation is looking pretty good as the postseason approaches. This is the rotation without Steven Wright, who is going to have his shoulder examined this week by Dr. Neal ElAttrache.

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With the Boston Red Sox trailing the AL East by a full game with 26 games left on the schedule, they currently have an 89 percent chance of making the playoffs. If they can make it to the Divisional Round, those four starters match up with just about any team in the AL outside of Cleveland’s starters, and the surge that Eduardo Rodriguez has been providing could go a long way to determining how the Sox end 2016.

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