MLB Payroll Analysis and Offseason Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

Upcoming Free Agents

*Discounts Nova’s stats with Yankees in 2016

Five free agents: four of which have improved their stock to varying degrees with the Bucs this season. First, we’ll look at the two who have seen their stock skyrocket since donning a Pirates jersey.

Ivan Nova, or J.A. Happ 2.0, has been much talked about in the past month and a half within the baseball community. Acquired for next to nothing from the Yankees, Nova has pitched brilliantly in nine starts so far in Pittsburgh. Last year, J.A. Happ was very similar. Acquired in a quiet buy-low move, and transformed to a top-of-the-rotation type pitcher. He went on to sign a three-year, $36 million contract with the Blue Jays and has rewarded them with a very good season. Nova, on the other hand, has not pitched as well as Happ did with the Pirates.

In 11 starts, Happ pitched to a 1.85 ERA down the stretch for Pittsburgh. Nova has been good, but not as good. He should be expected to cash in on a very weak free agent market for pitchers, but most likely not with the Pirates. With many young pitchers coming through the system, Pittsburgh will not throw money at Nova to be a number-three starter and he will sign for about three years and $30 million elsewhere.

The next player who has seen his stock increase tremendously is Matt Joyce. A former key player for the Rays, Joyce had a hard time finding a job this offseason, and for good reason. He hit .174 with only five long balls in over half a season’s worth of games for the Angels last year. Joyce has shown again this season his ability to hit for power, especially against righties. While not an everyday caliber player, Joyce will get a nice multi-year deal worth around $5 million a season, but not with the Pirates. With a full outfield, Joyce is a luxury the team cannot afford, and they will have to go searching for the next Matt Joyce in the offseason.

That is the problem with buy-low options for a mid-market team such as the Pirates. Once the moves work (Joyce and Nova), they are gone soon after to chase money the Pirates don’t have, and the process to find a buy-low move continues. That is, however, how GM Neal Huntington keeps a job, as he is terrific at it.

Other free agents include utility man Sean Rodriguez. He has been a valuable piece of the club’s offense, all while playing every position on the field besides pitcher and catcher. Rodriguez has seen his stock increase as well, as he has hit 17 home runs with 51 RBI in very limited work. Though appearing in 128 games, the super utility player only has 260 AB. That accounts for 15.29 AB/HR, which would rank among the top 15 if he qualified. He and teammate Jung Ho Kang join Ryan Howard as the only players in MLB to amass 50 RBI in under 340 AB. Unfortunately for the Pirates, Rodriguez will get better money elsewhere and perhaps an opportunity to start every day. Expect him to earn a two- or three-year deal worth about $8-10 million annually.

Neftali Feliz’s roller coaster career continued, as he had a decent season in the pen. A flamethrower with a high ceiling like Feliz is valuable, even if he is only “decent.” Depending on how the Pirates front office feels about him, he could be back. This would be on a short term deal around $4-5 million annually. If the Pirates see a regression coming in Feliz’s sudden improved walk rate, he could be elsewhere next season as well.

The last free agent is Ryan Vogelsong. While not having a good season by any standards, he has come in and done what is expected of him, pitching to a 4.00+ ERA with limited strikeouts. The only player to not improve his stock, the 39-year-old pitcher could find a minor league contract elsewhere if he decides to pitch again, but it will not be in Pittsburgh.

Overall, the Pirates could very easily see all five pending free agents gone, unless some sort of circumstances change. Joyce and Vogelsong will surely be gone, while Nova, Feliz and Rodriguez will most likely find more money elsewhere.