MLB: Top Ten Prospects of the Rookie Leagues – GCL, AZL
MLB’s major league season is now ended, and the offseason reviews have begun. Today, we will review the top prospects that played in the lowest levels of rookie leagues this season, the Gulf Coast League and the Arizona Rookie League.
This will be the first in a series of posts on the top ten prospects in each league. This series is not entirely indicative of where a player may end up in a top 100 MLB prospect list as a player may not have played long enough to be considered. There aren’t hard and fast rules here, just a general “was this guy here long enough to be considered” feel. On a short-season league, that’s probably about 40-50 plate appearances or a handful of starts. For a full-season league, it’d probably be about double that, but once again, that can be waived in general if a guy made such an impact on the league that it’s hard to ignore his impact on being part of that league.
Call To The Pen will be having a top 100 list released in the early winter, so be looking for that as well, but for now, this should whet your prospecting appetite outside of scouting reports to come on some of the top prospects in the game!
Gulf Coast League
1. Mickey Moniak, OF, Phillies – Moniak was the #1 overall pick in the 2016 draft, and he showed exactly why. He’s a guy who is just out of high school, yet he shows an advanced approach at the plate and really showed well in the field. I was surprised at some of his lack of success on the base paths as he does have great speed, but more than anything, I think that’s part of adjusting to the level of catching behind the plate and judging better when to take off. His power won’t be a 20-homer guy, but he should be a guy who can put up a good amount of triples along with double-digit home runs as a gap power guy.
2. Delvin Perez, SS, Cardinals – Perez was rumored as high as #2 in pre-draft discussion before he was flagged for reportedly testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug in pre-draft testing. He has incredible speed and a monster arm at shortstop. He struggled some with controling those tools on the field, but he should be a guy who could steal a ton of bases and play high-level defense at shortstop. What impressed me most in Perez’s pro debut was his exceptional bat control. He could add some power as he has a good frame at 6’3 and 175 pounds, but he was 17 and able to make solid gap contact against many pitchers 3-5 years his senior in the GCL.
3. Ian Anderson, RHP, Braves – Many believed that Anderson was a money “reach” pick for the Braves when they selected him 3rd overall and paid him significantly below slot. The pick is now looking like a steal. Every review out there is calling Anderson one of the top 3-4 prospects from the 2016 draft. Anderson did not get a ton of exposure pre-draft, but he showed excellent stuff in his big league debut with more velocity than seen in his high school season (up to 97 on the radar gun) and much better command of his off speed stuff than had been scouted. He could be a guy who shows up in a lot of top 100 lists this offseason.
4. Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Phillies – Sanchez could end up the international signing bargain of the decade as he was signed for just $35,000 out of the Dominican Republic as he had auditioned for most teams as an infielder and just happened to throw for the Phillies. He has a loose delivery that he repeats well, and the ball absolutely explodes from his arm. He gets up to 98-99 MPH on the top end of his velocity, but the impressive thing is the sink that he gets on the ball, making it not just high velocity, but heavy as well, very difficult all on its own. On top of that, he shows a breaking ball that can act between a slider and a curve (in a good way, not a loose slurvy way) and a change that was very effective to left-handed hitters.
5. Jhailyn Ortiz, OF, Phillies – I’ll gladly admit to being a much bigger fan of Ortiz than most. Watching his swing is reminiscent of a right-handed David Ortiz, and he simply smashes balls that he gets a hold of. He does have issues with pitch recognition and a bit of a hitch before his swing, but he’s only 17, and he’s already 6’3 and 240 pounds of decent weight. Ortiz played right field this year and showed an excellent arm, but his size and youth may end up leading to a 1B/DH profile, but he should play even in that profile with one of the best pure power tools in the lower minor leagues.
6. Matt Manning, RHP, Tigers – Manning gets high marks for his athleticism, and he has NBA bloodlines through his father. While his results were incredibly impressive in the GCL and many were very high on him (Baseball America ranked him #2 in the GCL), I was concerned when watching his delivery as he really comes across his body and exposes the ball for an extended period. He is a tall pitcher and gets good sink on his fastball from that angle with a power curve ball that when he is on top of it gets hitters looking foolish. Even in my concerns and a 3.99 ERA in the league, it’s tough to argue with 46 strikeouts in 29 innings.
7. Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays – Bichette has major league blood lines, but he was dropped in many pre-draft rankings due to a “unique” swing, but then again, his father, Dante Bichette, had a unique swing of his own and found plenty of success with it. Bichette stayed at short in the GCL, but he projects to move off the position due to range issues and may not quite have the arm for third base, but he would be an elite level bat at second base if that’s where he ended up. He really impressed me with the consistency of his swing and his crazy power when he really squared a ball.
8. Juan Soto, OF, Nationals – While Victor Robles is rocketing up prospect lists this season, the Nationals have another teenage outfielder getting big time notice. Soto won the MVP of the GCL by hitting .361/.410/.550 with 5 home runs and 5 stolen bases. Soto is 6’1 and 185 pounds, and he has some room to grow, but he’s already a fringe defender, so he’ll likely be a left field only type defensively. Hitting is his carrying tool, however. He has an elite hit tool and his power is very solid as well, and if he focused his swing toward power, he very well could be a guy who hits 25+ home runs with the way the ball rockets off of his bat. Baseball America had Soto as #3 in the league, and I have some concerns about his defense playing as he moves forward, but this “hedge” could look silly very soon.
9. Cristian Pache, OF, Braves – The Braves have a teenage outfielder by the name of Ronald Acuna that would be getting a ton of notice if not for an injury this year. Next year, it may be a contest between Pache and Acuna for who can rocket up the prospect lists the fastest. Pache doesn’t have Acuna’s power, but he’s very probably a better defender with an absolute rocket for an arm in the outfield. Pache showed a high-end hit tool in his first professional season after being signed in 2015, but he is a guy who should have a similar offensive make up to a guy like Starling Marte with double-digit home run power and high-end stolen base numbers.
10. Josh Lowe, 3B, Rays – Lowe was viewed as a guy who could pitch or hit, but he was a guy who would be an early first round pick as a hitter and a second-round prospect as a pitcher. Hitting looks like a wise choice. Lowe has the frame and swing to build to a high level of power in his swing, but he exhibits solid pitch recognition and the ability to cut down on his swing when he needs to protect the zone, a mature approach for a player directly out of high school. Lowe has much better speed than you’d think at his size, but he didn’t use it on the base paths in his pro debut. That speed is highlighted by an incredibly quick first step, which serves him very well at third base along with a big time arm that should allow him to age well at the hot corner.
Next: Arizona Rookie League
Arizona Rookie League
1. Will Benson, OF, Indians – I’ll gladly admit bias here as Baseball America had both guys under Benson on my list ranked above him on theirs, but he was possibly my favorite overall athlete in the entire 2016 draft with high level physical tools that were nearly unmatched in the entire AZL. He’s got huge raw power in his swing. His speed is plus, but he does take a bit to get going, so he’ll never be a guy who steals a ton of bases, but he’ll be a guy who covers a lot of ground in the outfield and goes first to third on a lot of singles in his career.
2. Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Dodgers – Alvarez was a big money signing from Cuba that signed for $16M in July of 2015. He has incredible velocity, topping out in triple digits, but he also features a pair of plus breaking pitches in a curve ball and a hard slider. He’s 20 at this time, so there’s not a lot of projection into his 6’3, 175-pound frame other than filling out with “man size”, but he’s certainly showing excellent mechanics that were clean and repeatable. Hard to say at the cost, but the Dodgers may have actually gotten a bargain at $16M!
3. Leody Taveras, OF, Rangers – Voted the #1 prospect in the league by Baseball America, Taveras is a center fielder who signed for $2.1M last summer and played at 17 years old this year. He is advanced defensively with a solid amount of power, though it hasn’t translated to over-the-fence power at this point, but that should come as he fills out his 6’1, 170-pound frame. He does flash big time speed, and he could be an excellent power/speed combination with a very similar profile to Carlos Gomez, circa 2012-2014.
4. Cal Quantrill, RHP, Padres – He had better results as he climbed the ladder, but Quantrill made his debut returning from his 2015 Tommy John surgery. His ERA wasn’t pretty in the AZL, but he flashed excellent stuff, and his 2/16 BB/K ratio over 13 2/3 innings showed just how hard he was to drive as a hitter. Selected 8th overall in the 2016 draft, Quantrill showed his incredible sinker that will be ridiculously difficult for batters to drive along with flashes of how dominant he can be when his command and control are on point.
5. Khalil Lee, OF, Royals – Lee lasted until the 3rd round this year due to many teams really not having a clear path of whether they preferred him on the mound or as a hitter and many trying to dance that line. The Royals went at him as a hitter, and he’s shown so far that they’ve made the right choice to go that route. He has great bat speed with excellent raw power from the left side. I’d say he’ll likely end up as a right fielder, but he does have an excellent arm, and while he isn’t a great center fielder, he’d likely be an above-average defensive right fielder.
6. Seuly Matias, OF, Royals – The second of a pair of excellent Royals outfield prospects in the AZL on this list, Matias was signed in 2015 for $2.25M. He’s a huge kid at 6’3 and 210-225 pounds, depending on who you talk to, at only 17! The limited video I saw on him reminded me a lot of Eloy Jimenez, and Eloy rocketed into the national spotlight in his first full season in professional ball (but his third true season in the minors). I could see Matias doing something similar. To compare, Jimenez hit .227/.268/.367 at 17 in the same league. Matias hit .250/.348/.477 at the same age and same league. He’s a guy who isn’t just big power either. He has a ton of speed, but he takes a couple speeds until he gets to top speed, so he would probably work better in a corner outfield with a big arm.
7. Nolan Jones, IF, Indians – The Indians picked a pair of my favorites from the 2016 draft crop, and Jones was the second of those selections, getting picked out of high school in Pennsylvania. Jones is a tall guy that most figured would move off of shortstop due to his 6’4 height, and he spent a lot of the season working on his defensive skills at third base. I think he could still play a solid shortstop, but he flashed plus defense at third, so there’s positive there. Offensively, while his swing is not what you’d probably teach, he repeats it every time and makes excellent contact. Most notable from his debut was his .388 on base percentage, flashing an excellent eye to go along with his developing power and contact skills.
8. Gavin Lux, SS, Dodgers – Lux was one of the fastest risers in the 2016 draft class, really gaining steam as more people saw this cold-weather high school player from Wisconsin. He’s a guy who will likely not be a massive contributor to fantasy teams as a professional, with a solid contact swing that produces line drives and a conservative approach to base stealing, even though he does have plus speed. What people raved about on Lux was his consistency. He didn’t seem to ever get down from one bad play to the next play or one bad at bat to the next one. He may not be a guy who makes highlight reel plays at shortstop, but he’ll be a guy who gets to a ton of balls and rarely makes a bad judgement play. One guy that I talked with said that he’s basically a Brandon Crawford 2.0.
9. Brady Aiken, LHP, Indians – Most know the previous drama of the former Astros #1 overall pick from 2014, but he finally got onto the mound this season, and most would wonder how a 7.13 ERA and .308 batting average allowed would even get a guy on this list, but Aiken also struck out 35 guys in 24 innings, and his arm strength is still not all the way back from Tommy John surgery, peaking around 90 MPH this season while being more of a guy who sat in the mid-90s at peak before his surgery. As well as his curveball was, if he gets that velocity back, this is a guy who will rocket up prospect lists.
10. Hudson Potts, SS, Padres – A pick often panned in the first round, Potts (known as Hudson Sanchez in the draft process) was one of the youngest players in the entire 2016 draft class. He signed for significantly under-slot, which only added fuel to the fire of those who felt this was an over-draft. However, Potts showed that draft slot to be solid. He’ll likely end up moving to second base as a pro in the end, but he showed an excellent contact ability and really showed excellent bat control in the zone. He needs to work on his pitch recognition, but he was extremely impressive to watch as he made pitcher after pitcher work in the AZL.
Next up will be the advanced rookie leagues, the Pioneer League and the Appalachian League, so look forward to those!!