Colorado Rockies: Is Now the Time to Spend?

Colorado Rockies ownership has signaled that it could be open to increasing payroll this offseason. Are there ways to improve the team in this market?

The Colorado Rockies will enter the offseason with several key decisions to make. Not only will they need to replace the recently departed Walt Weiss as manager, but they will also have to determine what kind of course they want to set for the future.

The team is coming off one of its more competitive seasons in recent memory. Though they finished 13 games under .500, the Rockies’ 75 wins were their most since the 2010 campaign when they won 83. They remained a factor in the Wild Card race into the month of August, which is a decent step forward considering the club flirted with 100 losses the past couple years.

In fact, Rockies owner Dick Monfort suggested as much in a letter to season ticket holders, as related by Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. Monfort said, “The 2016 season was a significant step forward for our organization … You have invested in us and we will continue to invest in you, both in terms of growing our player payroll and providing the best service and ballpark experience in sports.”

Naturally, the most intriguing phrase and the one Saunders highlights is “growing our player payroll.” Colorado isn’t exactly one of the league’s top spenders, but they’re not quite bottom of the barrel either: their $120.6 million payroll ranks 19th in 2016. Montfort’s words make it seem like the organization is more interested in enhancing and adding to the roster it already has rather than rebuild.

That’s all well and good, but is the upcoming offseason looking like a good time to ramp up spending? Not particularly, with one of the sparsest free agent classes we’ve seen in recent years. The Rockies’ foremost weakness in 2016 was their pitching staff: the rotation posted a 4.79 ERA (26th in MLB) and the bullpen managed a league-worst 5.13 mark.

Considering the offense ranked second with 845 runs scored and a .794 OPS (trailing only the Red Sox in each category), even a modest improvement from their hurlers would seem to result in a much better season for the Rockies.

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Unfortunately, this winter’s free agent starting pitchers aren’t the most appealing bunch. Average names will be overvalued simply because there’s not much else out there. And it’s not hard to imagine someone like Jeremy Hellickson or Ivan Nova watching their ERA balloon at Coors Field, as has happened to so many others before.

However, if there is one place that prospective buyers will have options, it’s the relief pitching market. A few of the game’s top closers will be available, namely Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Colorado native Mark Melancon. The Rockies would probably have to overpay to beat out their competitors, but signing any of the three would obviously provide a major boost to their battered bullpen.

Nevertheless, paying for an elite closer is typically something a franchise does when it feels it is close to a finished product – something to get them “over the hump,” if you will. But unless the Rockies rotation improves, how many leads would they be handing off to their shiny new closer? The payroll would definitely increase, but the team’s overall performance might not change much.

If the Rockies want to spend, they might instead push to sign star outfielder Carlos Gonzalez to an extension. He’s been a frequent mention in trade rumors, but locking him up long-term would be a clear signal that the organization plans to win over the next several years. They might consider approaching Nolan Arenado and/or DJ LeMahieu as well.

Next: Marlins Offseason To-Do List

It’s difficult to imagine Colorado truly taking the next step until they have at least a competent starting rotation, and they’re probably not going to be able to spend their way to one this winter. GM Jeff Bridich would be better served combing the trade market for a buy-low candidate, while hoping that guys like Jon Gray and Tyler Chatwood make positive strides in 2017.