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Seattle Mariners: 2016 Season In Review

By Bobby Mueller

Jul 17, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; General view of at Safeco Field during the seventh inning of a game between the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros. Houston defeated Seattle, 8-1. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 17, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; General view of at Safeco Field during the seventh inning of a game between the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros. Houston defeated Seattle, 8-1. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jul 17, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; General view of at Safeco Field during the seventh inning of a game between the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros. Houston defeated Seattle, 8-1. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 17, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; General view of at Safeco Field during the seventh inning of a game between the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros. Houston defeated Seattle, 8-1. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports /

The Mariners still had a chance at a playoff spot heading into the final weekend of the season, but came up short. This is their season in review.

The last time the Seattle Mariners made the playoffs there was no Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, or Snapchat. The first generation iPhone was still a half-decade off, which meant kids had to play Pokemon with actual cards. We were all still two years away from being friends with Tom on MySpace.

The last Seattle Mariners playoff team was the 2001edition that tied the all-time record with 116 wins. They beat the Cleveland Indians in the American League Division Series, but were knocked out of the postseason in five games by the New York Yankees. They haven’t been back to the playoffs since and have had just six winning seasons in the ensuing 15 years.

They came close to making the playoffs in 2014 when they finished a game behind the Oakland A’s for the second wild card spot. That raised expectations for the 2015 season. Sports Illustrated and Fangraphs predicted the Mariners would win the AL West and Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA had them second in the division, but making the playoffs as a wild card team. Instead of living up to the hype, the Mariners regressed back from 87 wins to 76. It was a disappointing development.

Heading into the 2016 season, the Mariners were projected for 82-83 wins by Sports Illustrated, Fangraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. This time, they exceeded expectations with an 86-76 season and were within range of a wild card spot right down to the final weekend.

The Mariners got off to a good start to the 2016 season. They were 13-10 in April and 17-11 in May. Their good start put them in first place on June 2. That would be the peak of their season. From June 3 to June 29, the Mariners went 8-17. By the end of the month, they were 10 ½ games out of first in the AL West.

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July and August brought a rebound, as the Mariners were 28-26 across those two months. Then they got hot in September. From September 7 to September 30, the Mariners went 16-6. With two days left in the season, they were one game behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the race for the second wild card. Of course, true to form, the Mariners disappointed their fans. They lost their final two games and ended up three games out of a postseason berth.

Despite the disappointing finish, the Mariners did win 10 more games in 2016 than they won in 2015. The main reason for their improvement was their hitting attack, which went from 17th in wOBA to 9th. They got a little better on defense (moving from 24th to 22nd), and their relief pitching also improved. Below are metrics from Fangraphs that show the Mariners’ improvement in the different aspects of baseball.

2015

17th in wOBA (100 wRC+)

24th in defense

17th in starting pitcher fWAR (4.17 ERA, 4.18 FIP)

24th in relief pitcher fWAR (4.15 ERA, 4.06 FIP)

2016

9th in wOBA (107 wRC+)

22nd in defense

19th in starting pitcher fWAR (4.25 era, 4.48 FIP)

15th in relief pitcher fWAR (3.55 ERA, 3.97FIP)

  • wOBA = A rate stat that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome; scaled to on-base percentage.
  • wRC+ = Weighted Runs Created Plus—measures offense on a scale of 100 where 100 is average. A wRC+ of 120 means a player or team is 20% better than average on offense. A wRC+ of 99 means a player or team is 1% below average on offense. This metric is adjusted for league and ballpark.
  • fWAR = Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement—the number of wins a player would produce over a replacement-level player (like a player called up as a replacement from Triple-A).
  • ERA = Earned Run Average
  • FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching—estimates a pitcher’s run prevention independent of the performance of their defense.

The increase in offense for the Mariners was impressive. They went from a below-average hitting team to an above-average hitting team. Their 112-run increase from 2015 to 2016 was the fourth-highest increase in Major League Baseball. The other area with great improvement was the bullpen, as their relief pitching ERA dropped from 4.15 to 3.55 even though MLB as a whole saw an increase in ERA from 3.96 to 4.19. The team’s defense and starting pitching finished close to where they were in 2015.

Let’s take a look at the good, the bad, and the ugly for the Seattle Mariners in 2016.

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