Minnesota Twins Bullpen Could Be the Key to a Surprising 2017

The Minnesota Twins lackluster 2016 season has put a damper on what was a team on the rise just a year ago at this time. Yet, they have some pieces that could bring them back up to respectability in 2017.

With a number of big name free agents left on the market and the rumor mill swirling but not producing any blockbusters as of yet, there are still plenty of options out there for teams hoping to make a jump next year. The Minnesota Twins reside in the AL Central, which, outside of the American League champion Cleveland Indians, doesn’t necessarily hold world beaters.

The Royals have a core that is about to hit free agency all at once and could look to unload some of those players in the coming months to help jumpstart a rebuild effort. The Tigers may also be sellers this winter in an attempt to shed some payroll before their roster reaches retirement age. The White Sox always compiles a team they think has what it takes, but they never do.

That leaves the Twins, who finished with the worst record in baseball in 2016. The big problem for the club has been their starting rotation, which they tried to address by bringing up top prospect Jose Berrios in April, but he just added to the rotation’s woes.

Right now the Twins are working with a rotation of Berrios, Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago, Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson, in some order, and that doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. Yet, if they were able to add an under-the-radar arm this winter, say, someone similar to Jeremy Hellickson whom Philadelphia Phillies managed to nab in a low-risk trade last winter, then they could be in business.

The Twins have a middle-of-the-road offense that is closer to the top ten than a bottom ten performer. Their bullpen, which will be gaining the services of Glen Perkins again in 2017, does one thing very well: They don’t allow walks. While they ranked 23rd in FIP (4.18) and even lower in ERA, the addition of Perkins could help settle things down a bit. We hear all the time how relievers love their roles, and Perkins should cement many arms into roles throughout the season.

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The other reason that adding an arm to the rotation–at least one that can eat up some innings–is crucial, is so that the bullpen doesn’t have to take on so many innings. Last season they tossed a total of 567 2/3 innings, which was the fourth-most in baseball. Getting them a breather now and again could pay huge dividends over the long haul of the regular season. Scott Feldman, Jorge De La Rosa and Doug Fister represent three options for the rotation that wouldn’t cost too much to sign and should be able to eat plenty of innings, if one of the aforementioned five is deemed unworthy of a spot in the starting five.

That all said, there is one pitcher in the Twins bullpen that we should be on the lookout for. Ryan Pressly, who appeared in 72 games out of the Minnesota ‘pen in 2016 and held a 3.70 ERA has a lot going for him that could translate into a better 2017 season. He had a K/9 rate of 8.0 and a BB/9 rate of 2.7, both of which are pretty solid. The reason that his ERA may have been so high may have had something to do with the fact that he had a BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) against being somewhere between .311 and .359 (Statcast chart). When every batter you face is batting the equivalent of a batting champion, it’s hard to get through unscathed. The ERA he posted wasn’t necessarily a shutdown performance, but it’s an excellent showing considering.

Pressly also has one of the best curve ball spin rates in the game, consistently reaching 3,000+ revolutions. His slider is no slouch, either, going at about the same rate. Half of the time he throws one of these two offerings with a spin rate above 2,900 it results in a strike, whether it’s a called strike (8.9%), fouled off (19.7%) or swung on and missed (22.2%). Thirty percent of the time these pitches were called balls, mostly due to the fact that he has to attack down and away to right-handers and down and in to lefties. That’s the spot in the zone that he likes to attack, and it leads to his lowest exit velocity against. The problem is that they both have lots of movement and it’s harder to keep them in the zone on a more consistent basis.

Between the slider and curveball, the curve was the more effective of the two, as opposing batters hit just .154 and slugged a whopping .200 over 180 pitches. He allowed ten hits on his curve, eight of which were singles.

The main problem for Pressly seems to be his fastball gets hit pretty well, and a pitcher needs at least a moderately effective heater to set up the off-speed stuff. His fastball gets some swings and misses at 96 mph, but lead to a .314 batting average against and a 92.3 exit velocity.

Over the course of the season Pressly flirted with different usage for his pitches, and the general consensus was to throw the fastball between 45 and 50 percent of the time while his slider and curve were used roughly twenty percent of the time, while mixing in a change and a sinker on occasion.

As a fly ball pitcher (39.4% ground ball rate in 2016), Pressly can just let the opposition hit it in the air and let Byron Buxton and Max Kepler go and get it. Both are well above average fielders, and with Miguel Sano likely to return to third base, the Twins’ outfield defense should improve and lead to at least a slight uptick in production on the mound.

With Jason Castro signed to take over behind the plate, pitch sequencing could play a big role in improving some of the pitcher’s performances, like Pressly.

Next: What Should We Expect From Segura in Seattle?

I’m not going to say the Twins will make the playoffs. Hell, I won’t even say that they’ll challenge for a playoff spot. But with Buxton seemingly turning things around, Kepler providing some power at the plate and some solid defense in the outfield and Sano sliding back to third, the Twins may be getting back on the track that they were on entering 2016 if they can make some small adjustments this winter.

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