Los Angeles Dodgers: Kenley Jansen or Justin Turner?

The Los Angeles Dodgers may only have the cash to re-sign one of two players from their 2016 squad that has hit free agency. If so, should they choose Kenley Jansen or Justin Turner?

The market for elite closers has risen drastically in the past year. At the deadline, copious amounts of talent were given up for both Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. The offseason has already seen Mark Melancon and Aroldis Chapman receive record-breaking contracts for closers. One elite closer, Kenley Jansen, remains on the market. The market for third basemen like Justin Turner isn’t quite as high. The Los Angeles Dodgers, however, may not be able to afford both contracts that Turner and Jansen are likely looking for.

If their budget is limited to signing one of the two, which one should they sign? The value of elite closers is at an all-time high, but Justin Turner will see far more playing time than Jansen. Comparing the value of a closer to a third baseman can be incredibly difficult. As many, including Sam Miller of ESPN, have noted, there is a drastic difference among the three WAR formulas. For a general sense of who has been more valuable, there can be some knowledge gained from each player’s WAR.

Kenley Jansen produced 3.2 fWAR, 2.5 bWAR, and 2.4 WARP. His fWAR was good enough to be best among relievers, while his bWAR and WARP were top five for relievers. Justin Turner was worth 5.6 fWAR, 4.9 bWAR, and 4.6 WARP. That placed Justin Turner 5th in fWAR, behind the big names of Kris Bryant, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, and Adrian Beltre. In WARP he was 7th behind those same four players and two other big name players in Nolan Arenado and Kyle Seager.

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What it boils down to is that both Jansen and Turner were exceptional at their given positions. Both were among the best players in the league at their positions. Both provided approximately the same value to the Dodgers, and contributed around the same amount to the team’s success. Simply comparing the two players will only lead to jumping back and forth and eventually ending at the result that there’s no way to win the decision. Rather than compare the two players themselves, a good way to judge which direction the Dodgers should take is by comparing those that would replace them on the Dodgers roster.

If the Dodgers were to let Jansen walk, or he simply took a different offer, their bullpen would be seriously lacking. Competitors for the closer position if Jansen leaves include Pedro Baez, Adam Liberatore, and Luis Avilan. None of those players is in a good position to be the closer on a winning team. The Dodgers, however, could dip into the free agency pool for a player like Sergio Romo. They could also be very good trade partners with a team like the White Sox, as I mentioned earlier this week. None of those that would replace Jansen would be close to his level of performance, unless they are able to coax Britton from the Orioles, but they could in combination provide enough for the Dodgers to win.

If we pivot to the third base situation in the wake of Justin Turner leaving, there exists only one player on the Dodgers depth chart, Rob Segedin. In his debut season, Segedin wasn’t all that impressive. He saw only 83 major league plate appearances, but his slash line of .233/.301/.370 was subpar. He did hit well in AAA during the 2016 season (.319/.392/.598), but that didn’t transfer to his time in the big leagues. Allowing Segedin to take over the third base job full-time could have some dangerous backlash for the Dodgers offense.

Turner carried the offense when Clayton Kershaw went down with injury, helping the Dodgers come from behind and win the NL West. He was an imposing presence in the middle of a Dodger lineup that only saw Corey Seager be more consistent. Not even the NL MVP candidate and NL Rookie of the Year matched Turner’s output in home runs (27) and isolated power (.218).

The third base free agent market is fairly thin. The only two third basemen on the free agent market with above average offense (according to wRC+ baseline of 100) are Andres Blanco and Adam Rosales. Neither would be horrible additions for the Dodgers to make, but they would likely command a similar salary to Turner for slightly less production. The Dodgers could also trade with the White Sox to fill this void, trading for Todd Frazier.

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If the Los Angeles Dodgers are limited to signing only one of Justin Turner and Kenley Jansen, they certainly won’t be as good of a team in 2016. One way or the other they will have to sacrifice a key position. The decision won’t be easy, but the best option seems to be signing Justin Turner to a cheaper contract than Jansen would command and using the extra funds to sign or trade for a closer or two.

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