Can the Toronto Blue Jays turn their offseason around?

With Boston and New York making splashy moves this offseason, so far the consensus on the Toronto Blue Jays has been underwhelming to put it politely.  With the potential loss of three free agent bats, how can the Blue Jays upgrade their lineup to enhance their chances at a third consecutive playoff appearance?

The AL East is always home to a championship contender.  With two of the four biggest markets in North America, as well as Boston (which is close to the tenth biggest), each offseason is bound to be a race to accumulate top talent.  We have seen it this past week with Boston’s Dave Dombrowski lighting a bonfire on top of the Hot Stove and New York’s Brian Cashman psychologically fanning the flames with a Golden State Warriors comparison.

The biggest moves we have seen so far from each club are the Red Sox trading top prospects for Chris Sale and the Yankees re-signing Aroldis Chapman after pocketing some top prospects from the Cubs (who are probably not complaining).  The Toronto Blue Jays signed Kendrys Morales, who is most famous for breaking his leg celebrating a home run.  Two of these moves register excitement with fan bases and one is a cheaper replica of a player they had previously and have decided not to sign.

In compiling Winners and Losers from last week’s Winter Meetings, the Toronto Blue Jays have appeared on top of everyone’s Loser list but with eight weeks until pitchers and catchers report, there is still time for the baseball ops team of Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins to set this team up for the playoffs for a third consecutive season.

As of December 12th, Bautista and Encarnacion are still available…

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… and should be left for other clubs.  Baseball is a tough business and the Blue Jays should move on after saying thanks for the memories.  Even in the new financial landscape, it is not sound strategy to put big contracts on the table to reward past production.  Ideally, you pay for future production and get good value from new contracts like former GM Alex Anthopoulos did on the last deals given to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.  What will the market bear for these two players?  Likely less than the best offers the Blue Jays put on the table for each of them.  While it might not be popular opinion, it looks like the Blue Jays dodged adding two large contracts.

Then what to do with the fortuitous payroll flexibility?

Keep momentum going.  Toronto likes a winner as 3.4 million fans would attest to in 2016, which was good for third place in all of baseball.  Starting pitching is set barring injuries.  The bullpen’s loss of Brett Cecil needs to be replaced, specifically with left-handed options but those are available in free agency.  Although not all left-handed, there are some very good set-up options still available including Brad Ziegler, Sergio Romo, Neftali Perez and Greg Holland as mentioned here that will maintain payroll flexibility and won’t break the bank.

Where will the impact bats come from?

The calling card for the Blue Jays has been home runs as they have finished in the top 3 in the AL in the past three seasons.  For that streak to continue, the lineup needs an upgrade – particularly in the outfield.

Currently, the outfield of Steve Pearce (.217 batting average in Baltimore), Kevin Pillar (.266) and Melvin Upton Jr (.196 in Toronto) as constructed will bring other things to the table other than a spike to an old-fashioned statistic like batting average.  It is fair to say that Pearce’s value is as a Utility player and Upton’s value is as a fourth outfielder.

Toronto Blue Jays

The two targets that have been discussed as filling a corner outfield spot and leadoff hitter were free agent Dexter Fowler and trade target Adam Eaton and both are now off the market.   The remaining free agency market does not hold much hope for value (unless the Blue Jays revisit adding Ben Revere) so that leaves the Blue Jays looking for a trade partner.  Rumored to be available, Andrew McCutcheon and Billy Hamilton would both be ideal upgrades but given the high-end top prospects that were reportedly being discussed with other teams at the 2016 Winter Meetings, it isn’t likely that the Blue Jays can compete on that front after Shapiro was pretty adamant about building the farm system back up after the 2015 acquisitions of David Price and Troy Tulowitzki.

Escalation as a Strategic Counter-move

While it doesn’t seem to be in the modus operandi of either Shapiro or Atkins, a blockbuster acquisition would ignite the Toronto fan base and pit Boston versus Toronto for AL supremacy, up until the Yankees inevitably acquire Bryce Harper and re-establish the Evil Empire.

Who would be the ideal acquisition for the Toronto Blue Jays lineup?  Toronto’s own Joey Votto is most often cited all-star associated in rumors with the Blue Jays but he doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to waive a no-trade clause, even to move to his hometown club.

While not as ideal as Votto, some realistic left-handed outfield bats that might be available would be:

Michael Brantley – something of a risk with his injury history, he is in the last year of a 4 year, $25 million dollar deal and the Indians seemed to cobble an outfield together that played well enough to win the American League.

David Peralta – eligible for arbitration after 2017, his WAR in 2015 was 3.7 but like everyone else in Arizona, it fell off a cliff this past season to 0.6.  It might be worth checking in on his availability with the new Arizona GM

Alex Gordon – his 2016 season did not inspire confidence and was the first year of a four year, $72 million dollar contract signed last offseason.  Would the Royals entertain an offer for him that did not involve a top 5 prospect from the Blue Jays?  Kansas City might be listening to offers in order to free up payroll as a number of their players in their primes are set for new contracts in the next season or two.

Jay Bruce – another name consistently linked to the Jays (and not just because his name is Jay), Bruce is coming off a season where he hit 33 home runs and made the All-Star team.   Would the Mets move him in order to shed salary?  He is in the last year of a 7 year, $63 million dollar that pays him $13 million in the final year.

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While upgrading the outfield, none of these four bats would move the needle much in Toronto.  To put Toronto on the Winners side of the 2017 Offseason will require some creative and drastic moves from the Toronto Blue Jays front office to compete with what Boston and New York have done so far. While winning the offseason is no guarantee of playoff success, Toronto’s roster still needs a lot of work for them to be considered contenders.