Philadelphia Phillies: Trades and Consequences
While one move can lead to another, offseason groundwork and the Winter Meetings are a crystal ball for the fans regarding the strategy of Matt Klentak, general manager of the Philadelphia Phillies.
Klentak’s Blueprint:
Despite plans for tomorrow, life intervenes with unforeseen wrinkles to challenge one’s flexibility.
Stockpiling resources of talent, Klentak now has room to deal a catcher, a reliever and a middle infielder. To accomplish this, he quickly dealt for Pat Neshek as an eighth-inning setup man because the team had a major weakness in that spot. And the GM then acquired Howie Kendrick – a salary dump – to plug a corner outfield hole, which also gave the exec the opportunity to swap Cesar Hernandez for a left-swinging outfielder. But if no other move is forthcoming, Klentak will have the problem-free luxury of only improving the organization.
Being in a win-win situation with Jeremy Hellickson, the decision-maker didn’t have to pick up another starter to head the rotation: This known commodity is probably better than other available options in an area with few possibilities and plenty of competition. Again, pitching-wise, when Klentak inked Joaquin Benoit as another eighth-inning man, the executive revealed building a stronger club in an improved NL East with many possible pieces to deal before spring training and/or near the trading deadline.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “There are more teams looking for pitchers than there are pitchers. That’s why it’s pricey.” – Brian Cashman
The increased production from Cameron Rupp, the acquisition of receiver Jorge Alfaro and the progress of backstop Andrew Knapp have the Philadelphia Phillies in position to move a catcher as well.
A few weeks back, one local on another site commented that Hernandez is on his way to an All-Star career. Another posted about getting prospects for Hernandez, while a third replied about acquiring another outfield bat. Of course, some have dared to dream out loud of signing a marquee player, but what do the Phils need most? A southpaw reliever.
On the downside of swapping Hernandez at this time, the readiness of J.P. Crawford is still fifty-fifty for mid-season and will require two months with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs to estimate his arrival time. So, when Klentak floated trading his leadoff hitter in November, it revealed his preference for Freddy Galvis at second base to make room for Crawford. But if the youngster struggles at Lehigh Valley or with Philly, both Hernandez and Kendrick might not be with the Philadelphia Phillies due to a trade or an expired contract.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Look at misfortune the same way you look at success – Don’t Panic! Do your best and forget the consequences.” – Walter Alston
Concerning receivers, one poster stated that switch-hitting Knapp could play first base against some right-handed hurlers and back up Rupp. But others have said to move Knapp now due to Rupp’s success and Alfaro’s potential. Yet while Alfaro has a high upside, many fans feel he should be the starter on Opening Day, but the youngster must earn a 25-man roster spot first. That stated, many franchises will have interest in MLB-ready catching as part of a package for a left-side hitter with pop to fit between Maikel Franco and Tommy Joseph in the five hole.
While the team’s future backstop is Alfaro, Rupp has secured the regular role after exceeding his projected ceiling. However, if the Phillies deal him now, the tandem of Alfaro and Knapp with only one veteran starter would be disastrous. So, Klentak could swap Knapp and have Alfaro backing up Rupp but with frequent playing time, or the general manager could assign Alfaro to the IronPigs if Knapp is still on the roster.
With a second upgrade in the relief corps, Klentak has now added veterans in the pen, the rotation and the lineup, but he could also move Hector Neris, Jeanmar Gomez or Edubray Ramos for a left-handed reliever or a left-side bat. Considering, however, the arm he could trade, the red pinstripes would lose either a ninth-inning fireballer or a seventh-frame hurler: a dependable setup man or a moldable flamethrower.
Acquiring a lefty reliever will be extremely difficult, while a left-handed bat with power will either require a top prospect, a free agent for more than one year or accepting a salary dump of $13 million. Who is the $13 million man in his contract year? Jay Bruce. That said, the New York Mets have not been getting any reasonable offers for him, they have a crowded outfield, and they want to unload his dollars. Of course, Klentak is playing a waiting game to keep Neris, Gomez, Ramos and Knapp, while again the decision-maker’s preference is a man playing for his next guaranteed contract.
To sum up, if no changes take place before spring training, who would Klentak deal during the summer? Hellickson, Benoit, Neshek, Gomez, Rupp, Hernandez and Kendrick would be available, but what should fans expect in July? A month of fireworks.
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
These numbers do not include any postseason activity.
Pitching:
- Hellickson, 29.5: 23 Gms., 189 Inn., 12-10, a 3.71 ERA, a 3.98 FIP, a 3.99 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, a 3.2 WAR and a 1.15 WHIP.
- Benoit, 39.5: 51 Gms., 48 Inn., a 2.81 ERA, 1 Save, 18 Holds, a 3.90 FIP, a 4.24 xFIP, a 3.91 SIERA, a 0.5 WAR and a 1.27 WHIP.
- Neris, 27.5: 79 Gms., 80 1/3 Inn., a 2.58 ERA, 2 Saves, 28 Holds, a 3.30 FIP, a 3.17 xFIP, a 2.95 SIERA, a 1.2 WAR and a 1.11 WHIP.
- Neshek, 36: 60 Gms., 47 Inn., a 3.06 ERA, 18 Holds, a 3.68 FIP, a 4.07 xFIP, a 3.57 SIERA, a 0.5 WAR and a 0.94 WHIP.
- Ramos, almost 24: 42 Gms., 40 Inn., a 3.83 ERA, 15 Holds, a 3.60 FIP, a 3.68 xFIP, a 3.37 SIERA, a 0.5 WAR and a 1.18 WHIP.
- Gomez, 28.5: 70 Gms., 68 2/3 Inn., a 4.85 ERA, 37 Saves, 6 BS,1 Hold, a 3.96 FIP, a 4.26 xFIP, a 4.12 SIERA, a 0.4 WAR and a 1.46 WHIP.
Hitting:
- Bruce, 29.5: 147 Gms., 589 PA, a .250 Avg., a .309 OBP, a .506 SLG, a .256 ISO, a .266 BABIP, 33 HR, 99 RBI, an .815 OPS and a 0.8 WAR.
- Rupp, 28: 105 Gms., 419 PA, a .252 Avg., a .303 OBP, a .447 SLG, a .195 ISO, a .315 BABIP, 16 HR, 54 RBI, a .750 OPS and a 1.6 WAR.
- Hernandez, 26.5: 155 Gms., 622 PA, a .294 Avg., a .371 OBP, a .393 SLG, a .099 ISO, a .363 BABIP, 6 HR, 39 RBI, a .764 OPS, a 4.4 WAR, 17 SB, 13 CS and a 5.7 Spd.
- Galvis, almost 27: 158 Gms., 624 PA, a .241 Avg., a .274 OBP, a .399 SLG, a .158 ISO, a .280 BABIP, 20 HR, 67 RBI, a .673 OPS and a 2.4 WAR.
Triple-A Hitting:
- Knapp, 25: 107 Gms., 443 PA, a .266 Avg., a .330 OBP, a .390 SLG, a .124 ISO, a .343 BABIP, 8 HR, 46 RBI, a .719 OPS and a 3.6 WAR.
- Crawford, almost 22: 87 Gms., 385 PA, a .244 Avg., a .328 OBP, a .318 SLG, a .074 ISO, a .284 BABIP, 4 HR, 30 RBI, a .647 OPS and a 0.8 WAR.
Next: Storyline: Trading Forecast for the Phillies
Double-A Hitting:
- Alfaro, 23.5: 97 Gms., 435 PA, a .285 Avg., a .325 OBP, a .458 SLG, a .173 ISO, a .347 BABIP, 15 HR, 67 RBI, a .783 OPS and 4.0 WAR.