San Diego Padres: Is Jered Weaver Worth a Look?

Could Jered Weaver revive his career with the San Diego Padres? The team is reportedly eyeing the one-time Angels ace.

When you are a team in transition like the San Diego Padres, sometimes it makes sense to take a cheap, one-year flyer on a once-great veteran to fill out your pitching staff. If it works out, then you have something, and if not, no real harm done. The Friars are reportedly considering such a gamble with former Angels ace Jered Weaver.

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports identifies the tall-right hander as a potential Padres target, along with fellow veteran Jake Peavy, who of course spent his best years in San Diego and won the Cy Young there in 2007.

But is Weaver in particular worth the Padres’ time and effort? He is coming off his worst season as a big leaguer in 2016. He posted a 5.06 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 2.02 K/BB ratio over 31 starts for Los Angeles this year. The fall-off has been swift for the 34-year-old, who won 18 games to the tune of a 3.59 ERA just two seasons ago.

Weaver’s finest run as a major leaguer came from 2010 to 2012, when he turned in a 51-25 record (including 20 victories in 2012), 2.73 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 3.70 K/BB. He finished in the top five in Cy Young voting each year, placing as high as second in 2011.

Much has been made of Weaver’s staggering loss of velocity over the past couple years. While never quite a flamethrower, the righty routinely averaged around 90 mph on his fastball during his heyday. That number has steadily declined, bottoming out at 84 mph this year per Fangraphs PitchF/X.

A drop in velocity happens to most pitchers as they age, and it’s up to them to adapt to getting hitters out with reduced “stuff.” Thus far Weaver has shown little ability to make the adjustment. He’s simply become much too hittable, and opponents are hitting the ball very hard against him. Case in point, the AL-most 37 home runs Weaver served up in 2016. He averaged nearly two homers surrendered per nine innings.

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Is there any hope for improvement? Weaver’s FIP doesn’t provide any reassurance, as it was even worse than his ERA at 5.62. Batters also maintained a very average .301 BABIP opposite him. The home runs are where Weaver has run into the most trouble. His opponents enjoyed a 12.7 percent HR/FB (home run to fly ball) ratio last season, by far the worst of Weaver’s career. While it’s possible that could regress a bit next year, it doesn’t help that Weaver is generating significantly fewer ground balls. He put up a 28.8 percent ground ball rate in 2016, down from a high of 36 percent in 2012.

Combine that with the fact that he isn’t striking out hitters nearly as often as he used to (5.2 K/9 over last two seasons, down from 9.3 in 2010), and the outlook isn’t too great. Weaver will need to figure out how to get by with his current skill set, but he just hasn’t done it yet.

However, San Diego might be as good a place as any for Weaver to get himself back on track. The California native would get to stay close to home and play half his games in a park that has been fairly kind to pitchers. Petco Park could perhaps swallow up a few of those would-be home runs. The Padres wouldn’t have to stick their necks out very far either, as the struggling former ace would surely come at a bargain rate on a one-season pact.

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You should never say never in baseball, but right now it’s hard to imagine Jered Weaver recapturing the magic. That said, it’s an experiment that might be worth a try for the rebuilding Padres.