New York Yankees: As Opt-Out Looms, Masahiro Tanaka Playing It Cool

Masahiro Tanaka says he’s not thinking about opting out of the remaining three years of his contract with the New York Yankees after the upcoming season. Barring poor performance or a significant injury in 2017, we all know it’s going to happen.

In a rotation that currently contains more question marks than sure things, the New York Yankees will pencil Masahiro Tanaka into the number-one spot with little hesitation. Will they be doing so again a year from now? That depends on whether or not the Japanese right-hander exercises the opt-out clause in the seven-year, $155 million contract he signed with New York in January of 2014.

As he prepares for Spring Training, Tanaka isn’t wasting any time fretting over the looming decision he’ll have to make. He said as much in a recent Associated Press report:

"“It’s something that I put aside going into the season,” Tanaka said Wednesday through a translator. “Can’t be really thinking about that while you go through the season, really focus on this season and when the time comes after the season, then I’ll probably have a chance to think about that more.”"

While that’s all well and good, Tanaka, the Yankees and their fans are well aware that the question of the opt-out will be popping up frequently throughout the course of the 2017 campaign. In today’s media climate, avoiding it completely isn’t exactly realistic.

If you were to ask Tanaka his true feelings, he would likely tell you that he is especially motivated to put together a strong season this year: not only to help his team, but to put himself into as good a situation as possible as a potential free agent.

Take a look at the starters who will be eligible to hit the open market next fall. With the exceptions of Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish and perhaps Chris Tillman, it’s not the most impressive bunch. And it’s certainly possible the talent pool could degrade further if any of those guys signs an extension between now and then. If Tanaka were to join the fray, he would immediately become a marquee option for teams seeking rotation help.

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Tanaka’s current deal would earn him $22 million in 2018 and 2019, and $23 million in 2020. Even with a stellar showing in 2017, it’s debatable whether he could push that annual salary level much higher. (He will already be the 11th highest paid starting pitcher in MLB this year.) But at the very least, Tanaka would stand to secure a new contract that runs well past his current deal’s endpoint.

Of course, Tanaka doesn’t come without some concerns. He will be turning 29 next November, making him ripe for a long-term deal. But his past injury issues might give some teams (including the Yankees) pause when deciding whether to make a pricey investment in him. During the 2014 season, his first in MLB, he was diagnosed with a partial tear in his UCL, limiting him to 20 starts. Rather than undergo Tommy John surgery he elected to treat the injury with rest and rehab. The next year he made 24 outings as he spent some time on the DL with an unrelated forearm strain.

In 2016, Tanaka had his healthiest campaign yet in the U.S., though he did miss a start at the end of the year with a mild flexor mass strain. He took the mound 31 times and fell just one out shy of the 200-inning mark. Another mostly uninterrupted season this year would go a long way toward alleviating clubs’ fears. When he has been on the field, Tanaka has looked unfazed by MLB competition, posting a 3.12 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 5.30 K/BB ratio over his three seasons in New York. More of the same would make him a very popular man as a free agent.

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As for the Yanks, they seem content to let the situation unfold. If Tanaka is having a nice year and the team is out of contention by the midsummer break, do they consider trading him? (He has a full no-trade clause, mind you.)

If he opts out, they will find themselves at a crossroads. Do they thank him for four years of service and let the money come off the books, hoping their youth movement and an expected spending spree in 2018-19 will fill the hole? Or do they agree to an extension, crossing their fingers that they won’t see a repeat of the CC Sabathia scenario?

Time, as usual, will tell.