Toronto Blue Jays: Jose Bautista Expectations for 2017
By Tim Boyle
Despite his age and the expected decline, expectations for Jose Bautista in 2017 are very high as the Toronto Blue Jays’ slugger tries to validate his new contract.
When the 2017 MLB season begins, Jose Bautista will be right where he belongs: in the middle of the Toronto Blue Jays lineup. The 36-year-old slugger nearly snuck away from the Blue Jays this winter before the two sides agreed to a deal larger than the qualifying offer Bautista originally turned down.
Joey Bats may stay in Toronto for the next three seasons. This is great news for the fans who adore him. At this point, Bautista is a Blue Jays icon. The bat flip, standing tall when taking a punch from Rougned Odor, and other memorable moments in recent years have put his name in Blue Jays’ lore for the rest of time.
Bautista has already accomplished a lot in Toronto but his time to shine is not over yet. In 2017, the expectations will remain high for Bautista as he tries to justify the new deal and help the Blue Jays get over the playoff hump.
Last year was easily one of the least productive for Bautista since becoming a star. He slashed an unusually low .234/.366/.452 in 116 games for the Blue Jays. His 22 home runs and 66 RBI were tremendously short of what he usually does, even in an abbreviated season. In fact, the home run total was the lowest of any season since 2009. In regards to the RBI total, it was the second lowest total he has amassed since that time.
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Clearly, Bautista is not the man he once was. He is striking out far more, not getting his hits, and seeing his power numbers decline. His 117 OPS+ last year was the worst of his career since his breakout performance of 2010. While still a great number above average, it’s a warning sign of what might come next.
Bautista is still expected to contribute at a high level in 2017. With the absence of Edwin Encarnacion, he is the longest tenured basher in the lineup. He should receive help from usual suspects Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, and Encarnacion’s replacement, Kendrys Morales. Their presence still does not mean that Bautista can continue to decline without receiving criticism. His continued ability to draw walks is certainly helpful, but not enough.
Last year, Bautista was a part of a growing trend of non-traditional leadoff men getting placed in the first spot of the lineup. This should continue in 2017 as Bautista was successful in this spot. When batting leadoff, Bautista slashed .239/.341/.459. He hit nine home runs batting number one. The only thing working to his disadvantage was that opposing pitchers did not walk him too often. Bautista’s talented eye at the plate was better when hitting third or fourth in the Blue Jays lineup. The plan did not work to perfection nor was it a complete disaster. We should see him hit leadoff often again in 2017. When he does, it’s important that he takes advantage as he often did last year.
One specific area Bautista must improve upon is his WAR. His 1 WAR from last season was inexcusable. This was in large part was because of his defensive shortcomings. Now with Morales on the roster, Bautista is trapped in right field with only limited chances to DH. If anything, this only swells the need for him to get back to hitting his best.
Bautista does not need to hit 30 home runs anymore or drive in 100 runs. He does not even need to hit .250. What Bautista needs to do more than anything is provide the Blue Jays with stable leadership. The expectation for him is to play better than he did in 2016, but not quite as well as he did in 2015. If he can find the middle ground with a year of power, lots of walks, and a much better batting average at home (only .214 in 2016) then the expectations will have been met.