Projected Lineup/Rotation/Bullpen
Based on FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), the Mariners last year finished 10th in offensive fWAR, 19th in starting pitching fWAR, and 15th in relief pitching fWAR. This year, FanGraphs has the Mariners projected to finish 11th in offensive fWAR, 15th in starting pitching fWAR, and 5th in relief pitching fWAR. That’s a good sign for the upcoming season. Specifically, here are the projected statistics for the Mariners’ hitters and pitchers from the FanGraphs Depth Charts:
Lineup/Bench
Plate Appearances, AVG/OBP/SLG
406 PA, .254/.315/.347—LF Jarrod Dyson (1.5 fWAR)
623 PA, .271/.312/.394—SS Jean Segura (2.1 fWAR)
630 PA, .288/.343/.469—2B Robinson Cano (3.6 fWAR)
630 PA, .266/.334/.508—DH Nelson Cruz (2.5 fWAR)
644 PA, .266/.340/.463—3B Kyle Seager (4.0 fWAR)
525 PA, .243/.309/.411—RF Mitch Haniger (1.2 fWAR)
301 PA, .243/.334/.408—1B Dan Vogelbach (0.6 fWAR)
416 PA, .218/.289/.415—C Mike Zunino (1.8 fWAR)
609 PA, .244/.298/.367—CF Leonys Martin (1.8 fWAR)
518 PA, .261/.314/.426—INF/OF Danny Valencia (0.5 fWAR)
294 PA, .253/.306/.372—OF Ben Gamel (0.0 fWAR)
192 PA, .241/.321/.331—C Carlos Ruiz (0.6 fWAR)
161 PA, .237/.298/.324—INF/OF Shawn O’Malley (0.0 fWAR)
126 PA, .254/.328/.338—OF Guillermo Heredia (0.1 fWAR)
The top of the lineup does not look that impressive with Dyson and Segura projected for on-base percentages around .315, but then you look at the bottom of the lineup, where Zunino and Martin are projected to have on-base percentages under .300, and the top of the lineup doesn’t look so bad. Segura, of course, was much better than this last year. He hit .319/.368/.499, so the 2017 projection is a significant fall to earth. His career batting line is .280/.319/.396, though, so his projection above may not be too far off.
The key to the lineup has been, and will continue to be, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager. They will provide a good amount of the run production and the team hopes Mitch Haniger and the Danny Vogelbachencia pair can help produce runs in the sixth and seventh spots in the lineup. Zunino is a big question mark at this point. He has a career on-base percentage of .262, with a 32.4% strikeout rate. His kryptonite is off-speed pitches on the outside half of the plate. Center fielder Leonys Martin got off to a great start last year. He hit .262/.339/.483 in the first two months of the season. From that point on, he hit .241/.292/.338. The Mariners are hoping first half Leonys Martin shows up again in 2017.
Starting Rotation
207 IP, 3.79 ERA, 3.87 FIP—RHP Felix Hernandez (3.2 fWAR)
176 IP, 4.14 ERA, 4.05 FIP—RHP Hisashi Iwakuma (2.6 fWAR)
170 IP, 3.71 ERA, 3.65 FIP—LHP James Paxton (3.1 fWAR)
168 IP, 4.07 ERA, 4.04 FIP—LHP Drew Smyly (2.8 fWAR)
129 IP, 4.63 ERA, 4.63 FIP—RHP Yovani Gallardo (0.9 fWAR)
If these starters reach their projected marks, that’s not a bad front four. This projected Felix Hernandez is not the Felix Hernandez he once was, but a 3-win pitcher is valuable. Hernandez, Iwakuma, Paxton, and Smyly all have a shot at reaching that 3 fWAR threshold. Gallardo, on the other hand, does not look like much of an addition. If he falters, lefty Ariel Miranda is likely next in line.
Bullpen
65 IP, 2.76 ERA, 2.65 FIP—RHP Edwin Diaz (1.9 fWAR)
65 IP, 3.65 ERA, 3.69 FIP—RHP Nick Vincent (0.9 fWAR)
55 IP, 3.42 ERA, 3.55 FIP—RHP Evan Scribner (0.6 fWAR)
55 IP, 3.56 ERA, 3.61 FIP—RHP Steve Cishek (0.5 fWAR)
40 IP, 3.58 ERA, 3.77 FIP—LHP Mark Rzepczynski (0.2 fWAR)
The FanGraphs Depth Charts project the Mariners’ bullpen to be the fifth-best in baseball, based on wins above replacement. They have a dynamic closer in Edwin Diaz, who is projected to strike out more than 12 batters per nine innings. They also have a plethora of right-handed options to get the game from the starter to Diaz. The left-handed options beyond the veteran Rzepczynski are young and unproven and include two guys new to the organization since last season—James Pazos and Zac Curtis. Dipoto’s bullpen philosophy seems to be to get as many lively arms as possible and see who can pitch his way into a spot in the bullpen.